***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.06.2014.-27.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 16.0 15.3 18.1 -0.6 39.1 38.3 15.2 15.9 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.4 18.2 -0.6 38.4 38.6 15.0 15.5 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 17.8 17.1 18.0 -0.7 35.7 36.3 17.0 17.5 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 83 17 0 100 11.7 11.5 15.8 -1.2 17.1 19.1 12.2 12.9 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 12.8 13.0 15.8 -1.0 21.1 24.8 13.8 14.1 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 12.3 12.2 14.4 -0.7 25.8 31.7 12.7 12.9 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.2 15.5 18.3 -0.6 38.6 37.9 15.3 16.0 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 7.5 7.8 14.0 -0.8 26.3 29.4 7.9 8.4 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 14.4 14.2 16.1 -1.0 23.0 25.6 14.9 15.3 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 14.3 14.3 14.5 -0.9 22.7 26.6 14.6 15.1 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 14.1 14.0 15.5 -0.9 23.0 27.8 14.4 15.1 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 12.1 12.2 15.0 -0.8 25.5 30.0 12.5 13.0 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 13.6 13.4 14.8 -0.7 22.9 30.1 13.7 14.4 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 14.9 14.8 15.9 -0.9 24.4 27.8 15.5 16.2 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 90 10 0 100 15.4 15.2 16.6 -1.4 11.2 15.0 16.0 16.6 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 14.6 14.4 15.4 -0.8 22.1 28.3 14.9 15.6 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 15.6 16.1 17.8 -0.6 36.0 37.5 16.1 16.4 16.7 29 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 12.5 12.5 13.6 -0.9 22.8 26.8 13.1 13.5 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.3 18.1 -0.6 36.7 37.8 15.3 15.6 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 8.8 8.7 12.1 -0.7 27.1 31.0 8.7 9.5 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 14.3 14.4 17.2 -0.9 27.1 29.3 14.5 15.0 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 14.4 15.0 17.5 -0.8 32.2 33.7 15.0 15.2 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 14.3 14.6 17.7 -0.7 31.7 34.0 14.6 15.0 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 14.8 14.6 15.8 -0.9 24.6 28.2 14.8 15.8 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 14.3 14.6 16.5 -0.8 29.0 30.3 14.8 15.2 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 13.5 13.5 14.7 -0.7 27.6 31.0 13.6 14.0 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 15.7 14.5 17.3 -0.6 35.3 35.8 14.5 15.6 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 88 12 0 100 12.9 12.6 16.2 -1.3 14.2 17.2 13.6 14.4 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 11.6 11.5 13.1 -0.8 23.7 28.5 12.0 12.6 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 16.2 15.5 18.4 -0.6 39.5 39.0 15.4 16.0 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------