***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.07.2014.-27.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 16.5 16.0 18.9 -0.3 43.3 46.1 15.5 16.1 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 14.5 16.0 19.1 -0.2 49.5 48.6 14.9 16.0 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 18.1 16.8 18.8 -0.4 43.1 45.3 16.5 17.8 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 12.0 11.6 16.7 -1.0 25.5 31.9 12.0 13.4 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 13.1 13.4 16.5 -0.8 32.9 36.9 13.4 14.2 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 12.2 12.0 15.0 -0.7 28.7 36.5 12.2 13.2 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 15.2 16.1 19.2 -0.2 48.4 48.2 15.1 16.3 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 7.8 8.1 14.6 -0.8 34.5 37.6 8.0 8.6 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 14.3 15.2 16.7 -0.7 36.6 39.1 14.9 15.7 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 14.2 14.6 15.1 -0.8 35.1 37.9 14.5 15.5 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 13.8 14.3 16.2 -0.6 35.5 39.1 14.0 15.1 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 12.3 12.5 15.8 -0.7 35.8 38.2 12.4 13.4 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 13.1 13.4 15.4 -0.6 30.7 36.7 13.4 14.6 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 14.9 15.4 16.7 -0.7 34.5 39.4 15.3 16.0 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 75 25 0 100 15.5 15.6 17.2 -1.2 23.3 27.6 16.2 16.8 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 14.2 14.8 16.1 -0.7 31.0 36.3 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.9 16.4 18.6 -0.2 47.5 48.8 15.7 16.4 17.8 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 12.5 13.0 14.3 -0.7 35.0 37.5 12.8 13.7 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 16.4 15.9 19.0 -0.3 47.2 47.9 14.8 16.0 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 8.3 8.9 12.8 -0.8 34.2 36.7 8.8 9.7 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 14.4 14.4 17.9 -0.6 37.7 41.0 14.4 15.5 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.4 18.3 -0.3 43.4 46.5 14.8 15.6 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.5 14.8 18.5 -0.4 41.6 45.4 14.1 15.1 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 14.8 15.1 16.5 -0.6 37.3 40.0 14.9 15.8 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.5 14.7 17.1 -0.6 38.4 40.8 14.7 15.0 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 13.2 13.4 15.3 -0.7 29.0 34.5 13.8 14.2 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 15.8 14.8 18.0 -0.4 43.8 44.6 14.6 15.3 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 12.8 13.1 17.0 -1.1 23.0 29.0 13.4 14.4 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 11.6 11.8 13.8 -0.7 35.7 37.3 11.7 12.6 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 15.1 16.2 19.3 -0.2 48.2 48.2 15.2 16.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------