***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.07.2014.-20.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 14.2 15.0 18.5 -0.4 38.7 43.4 14.6 15.3 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 15.9 15.4 18.8 -0.2 45.4 47.2 14.8 15.6 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 16.4 17.1 18.5 -0.4 40.3 44.6 16.7 17.5 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 11.7 11.5 16.4 -0.9 29.9 35.2 11.7 13.0 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 12.7 13.0 16.2 -0.7 35.0 38.3 13.0 13.6 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 12.0 12.3 14.8 -0.5 36.5 42.2 12.1 12.9 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.3 18.9 -0.3 42.5 45.9 15.1 15.6 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.5 7.9 14.5 -0.6 37.0 41.6 7.8 8.3 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 14.2 14.6 16.4 -0.7 35.1 38.6 14.6 15.0 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 14.3 14.5 14.9 -0.7 35.7 39.6 14.3 15.1 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 14.0 14.2 16.0 -0.6 38.1 41.4 14.0 14.7 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 11.9 12.5 15.5 -0.5 37.8 42.2 12.1 12.8 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 13.0 13.3 15.1 -0.5 34.1 40.7 13.2 13.7 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.3 16.5 -0.5 40.5 42.3 15.2 15.5 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 15.5 15.5 16.9 -1.1 29.6 32.8 15.6 16.5 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 14.5 14.5 15.8 -0.6 35.0 40.5 14.4 15.8 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.8 16.2 18.4 -0.2 43.8 46.9 15.6 16.4 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 12.6 12.5 14.2 -0.6 37.7 41.2 12.5 13.3 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.4 18.7 -0.2 46.9 47.5 14.7 15.5 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 8.6 8.9 12.7 -0.4 43.8 45.7 8.7 9.2 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 14.0 14.3 17.5 -0.6 34.5 40.1 14.2 14.8 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 15.2 14.6 18.1 -0.3 43.4 45.3 14.4 14.9 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 15.6 15.2 18.2 -0.3 44.9 46.1 14.1 15.3 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 14.5 14.9 16.2 -0.5 38.0 42.1 14.8 15.1 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 14.2 13.9 16.8 -0.6 33.4 39.7 13.9 15.5 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 13.2 13.3 15.0 -0.6 32.6 40.3 13.3 14.2 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 13.8 14.8 17.6 -0.5 37.2 42.0 14.4 15.4 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 12.8 13.0 16.7 -1.0 29.7 34.0 13.2 14.0 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 11.7 12.0 13.7 -0.5 41.9 42.8 11.6 12.6 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.2 15.7 18.9 -0.3 43.9 46.6 15.2 15.9 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------