***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.07.2014.-13.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 15.5 14.8 17.8 -0.7 41.3 40.2 14.7 15.1 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.1 14.4 17.9 -0.6 42.0 41.0 14.1 14.7 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 15.5 16.1 17.6 -0.8 38.6 38.5 16.0 16.6 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 10.5 10.7 15.5 -1.2 28.7 30.2 11.1 11.6 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 12.6 12.8 15.4 -1.1 32.5 32.6 12.9 14.0 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 11.5 12.0 14.2 -0.6 36.9 39.6 11.9 12.5 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 14.2 14.8 17.9 -0.7 41.4 40.9 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 6.5 7.1 13.7 -0.9 35.8 35.7 6.9 7.7 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 13.8 14.3 15.7 -1.1 33.4 33.5 14.3 15.0 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 13.7 14.0 14.1 -1.0 33.8 34.0 14.0 14.8 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 13.8 14.1 15.2 -0.9 36.0 35.4 13.9 14.9 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 11.3 12.2 14.7 -0.8 37.0 36.2 11.8 12.6 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 12.9 13.0 14.5 -0.7 35.5 37.2 12.8 14.3 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 14.4 14.7 15.7 -0.9 34.6 35.4 14.7 15.5 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 15.1 15.2 16.1 -1.3 23.9 28.3 15.9 16.2 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 13.9 14.6 15.1 -0.8 35.5 36.1 14.4 15.3 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 14.5 15.0 17.6 -0.6 41.7 40.8 14.7 15.4 16.1 29 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 12.0 11.7 13.5 -0.9 33.8 35.2 11.7 13.4 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 13.8 14.5 17.8 -0.7 41.6 40.7 14.1 14.9 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 7.6 8.8 11.9 -0.7 35.8 39.0 8.4 9.6 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 13.5 13.7 16.7 -1.0 34.9 35.1 13.6 14.6 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 13.7 14.2 17.3 -0.7 37.1 38.9 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 13.4 14.0 17.3 -0.8 39.0 38.8 13.5 14.6 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 14.1 14.5 15.5 -0.9 33.8 35.1 14.5 15.5 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 13.8 14.1 16.1 -0.9 35.6 35.9 14.0 14.9 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 12.4 12.8 14.5 -0.7 32.5 36.5 12.8 13.6 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 13.7 14.1 16.9 -0.7 39.3 39.1 13.5 14.5 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 12.8 12.9 15.9 -1.2 27.2 29.6 13.4 14.1 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 10.6 11.3 12.9 -0.8 34.6 36.4 11.3 11.9 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 15.5 14.9 18.0 -0.7 41.3 41.0 14.2 15.2 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------