***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.06.2014.-06.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 16.1 15.2 17.4 -1.0 35.5 34.8 15.2 15.8 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 14.0 14.5 17.0 -1.3 30.4 29.3 14.5 15.4 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 16.6 16.8 17.1 -1.2 32.3 31.8 16.8 17.4 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 11.8 11.6 14.6 -1.7 19.7 22.2 12.0 12.9 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 13.1 13.3 15.1 -1.4 27.8 26.6 13.8 14.7 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 12.4 12.7 13.5 -0.8 32.0 34.2 12.7 13.6 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 14.8 14.8 17.0 -1.4 27.6 28.4 14.9 15.8 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 7.4 8.1 13.1 -1.1 33.3 32.1 8.1 8.6 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 14.0 14.2 15.5 -1.5 23.5 25.4 14.6 15.3 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 14.2 14.1 13.7 -1.3 27.7 28.1 14.5 15.3 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 13.9 14.1 14.5 -1.4 26.9 26.3 14.8 15.6 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 12.0 12.7 13.9 -1.1 32.8 31.7 12.7 13.4 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 14.1 14.3 14.1 -0.9 32.4 33.0 14.3 15.1 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 77 23 0 100 14.7 15.0 15.0 -1.6 20.3 23.0 15.2 15.9 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 89 11 0 100 14.6 13.7 16.0 -1.8 12.8 15.5 16.2 16.9 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 14.6 14.8 14.6 -1.1 29.6 29.7 15.1 16.0 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 15.0 15.0 16.5 -1.4 26.9 27.2 15.2 16.3 16.7 29 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 12.5 12.6 12.6 -1.3 24.0 25.8 13.2 14.0 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 14.3 14.4 16.9 -1.4 29.6 28.6 14.5 15.3 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 8.8 9.1 10.8 -1.1 29.1 29.6 9.2 9.9 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 14.0 14.4 16.7 -1.4 26.7 28.2 14.8 15.2 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 81 19 0 100 13.4 13.0 16.3 -1.7 21.1 22.8 14.2 15.2 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 76 24 0 100 13.8 13.9 16.6 -1.5 26.5 25.9 14.2 14.8 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 75 25 0 100 14.1 14.4 14.9 -1.5 22.6 24.2 14.9 15.5 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 14.5 14.5 16.0 -1.2 30.5 29.8 14.6 15.6 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 13.5 14.2 13.9 -0.7 37.9 38.9 13.9 14.7 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 15.6 14.7 16.7 -1.0 34.7 33.3 14.6 15.5 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 78 22 0 100 12.7 12.4 15.3 -1.7 18.9 20.1 13.8 14.9 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 11.0 11.1 12.0 -1.3 23.5 25.2 11.6 12.3 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 14.8 15.2 17.3 -1.3 32.3 31.1 15.3 15.7 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------