***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2020.-26.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 56.3 91.0 49.1 123.1 72.3 58.4 27.5 46.3 65.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 62.0 73.5 46.2 136.3 77.6 63.3 30.9 41.0 58.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 53.0 76.0 50.5 127.3 72.5 58.9 30.2 44.9 58.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 58.7 69.0 42.5 113.3 65.6 53.4 35.5 48.3 69.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 53.1 60.6 45.0 119.7 66.5 54.5 36.6 46.7 60.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 57.4 58.3 48.4 112.7 65.2 53.2 39.8 53.7 58.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 59.6 71.0 46.0 133.6 76.5 63.4 23.8 40.7 58.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 88.5 112.2 56.3 128.1 71.2 55.3 53.7 77.1 107.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 25.0 67.8 50.9 124.3 68.1 56.3 28.2 38.2 66.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 71.2 93.0 60.5 128.1 71.0 56.4 44.2 60.9 78.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 25.8 57.5 43.6 125.4 69.1 55.2 25.4 38.5 57.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 60.6 77.3 42.5 126.4 68.8 55.5 36.6 51.9 68.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 41.3 45.8 43.7 125.1 68.3 57.6 22.3 37.3 45.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 73.3 92.8 68.6 136.8 74.6 60.1 51.1 65.9 77.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 17.4 50.9 33.4 113.9 66.2 52.7 18.6 32.2 50.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 39.3 43.5 43.5 127.2 68.1 57.2 25.8 36.1 42.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 60.8 73.7 46.2 140.2 80.3 65.7 33.9 45.8 62.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 69.0 89.3 69.8 127.3 71.3 57.0 47.6 62.8 88.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 68.8 86.3 47.6 135.3 76.9 62.6 31.4 38.6 59.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 65.9 77.1 67.3 122.3 70.1 54.6 48.7 60.3 70.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 55.4 64.0 49.6 124.7 70.4 56.8 22.1 45.3 61.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 66.8 78.2 49.3 138.7 78.1 64.8 37.3 48.9 57.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 59.6 64.7 50.7 135.4 76.7 62.2 38.6 49.1 55.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 64.8 88.2 63.3 131.5 71.4 58.7 36.1 55.5 85.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 53.1 65.2 50.3 119.7 69.3 56.3 31.6 42.5 52.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 21.1 51.2 33.7 118.5 69.2 54.3 20.9 30.4 44.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 55.9 65.1 51.6 121.6 70.4 58.0 44.7 50.3 61.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 50.5 59.5 40.4 116.1 66.8 54.2 25.0 45.0 58.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 85.3 107.6 71.9 125.9 70.9 56.0 62.4 77.4 103.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 47.7 77.0 47.2 132.0 75.6 61.4 29.5 38.3 64.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------