***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2020.-26.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9.9 16.6 7.1 91.9 70.9 52.5 1.1 4.0 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 5.6 6.8 6.7 103.8 68.7 53.3 0.9 2.7 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 11.1 23.6 9.0 118.9 72.6 54.2 1.4 7.1 21.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 12.1 26.4 7.5 105.3 72.4 52.2 4.2 6.7 20.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 6.7 21.8 7.8 110.3 73.4 53.8 0.4 2.5 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.6 17.0 8.5 104.4 70.8 50.7 0.7 7.6 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 8.6 16.4 6.5 95.4 70.7 53.2 1.7 5.3 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 13.6 21.1 9.8 106.6 69.8 51.0 2.5 9.9 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 8.0 23.0 8.9 110.5 74.2 53.4 0.5 3.8 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.9 28.7 10.9 112.5 71.6 52.9 3.1 11.3 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 7.8 17.5 7.3 114.1 74.4 52.0 0.8 4.3 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.6 16.5 7.1 104.2 72.0 51.0 0.2 6.7 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 4.9 11.6 8.3 119.7 76.2 52.9 0.9 2.9 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 15.5 34.4 13.1 125.0 72.6 54.1 1.8 9.4 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 4.5 11.0 5.5 105.0 75.1 51.9 0.8 2.3 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 6.2 14.1 8.1 123.4 76.5 52.7 2.1 4.0 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.3 24.9 6.5 103.4 70.0 55.3 1.7 4.6 20.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.8 27.8 12.8 110.3 69.8 53.4 4.4 8.6 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 10.7 17.3 7.5 113.1 70.3 53.8 2.5 7.2 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 10.0 12.0 12.3 99.4 66.2 51.0 2.9 7.1 11.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.7 26.0 8.4 112.2 74.5 53.0 0.5 4.7 21.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 10.6 23.5 8.1 118.7 71.7 55.8 3.2 5.9 20.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 9.1 21.9 8.9 123.3 73.8 54.7 1.6 5.4 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 14.0 30.9 12.1 125.0 72.1 54.3 0.6 7.8 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.0 17.5 7.8 103.8 73.7 54.1 1.0 4.6 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.4 18.3 6.3 105.4 73.2 52.0 0.1 5.7 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 9.9 17.9 7.6 93.7 70.7 53.1 3.0 7.0 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.6 25.3 7.3 110.1 74.4 51.8 2.2 5.0 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 17.2 26.6 13.3 108.8 68.0 52.4 4.2 12.3 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 11.9 18.1 7.2 103.1 69.1 53.0 3.0 8.4 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------