***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2020.-19.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 13.3 21.5 12.4 138.0 75.0 59.1 4.0 9.5 17.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 14.3 17.7 12.0 143.1 79.0 61.7 2.9 9.1 14.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 13.0 15.5 13.7 144.4 75.2 58.9 4.5 7.4 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.8 19.6 11.9 144.4 77.1 56.5 4.2 8.6 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 14.9 24.8 12.6 161.6 79.8 59.7 5.6 11.7 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.2 24.7 14.3 149.8 75.8 57.3 1.3 4.4 15.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 11.9 14.9 11.6 137.3 76.6 62.5 3.5 6.3 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 20.8 37.5 15.2 179.9 80.8 60.5 7.8 15.8 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.0 20.6 14.8 171.7 80.6 61.0 4.0 8.4 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 19.0 27.6 16.9 176.8 80.5 61.6 6.0 9.9 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.5 20.0 11.8 181.0 81.8 61.1 2.2 5.0 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 17.3 31.1 12.1 190.9 82.9 61.8 0.8 13.4 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 5.5 18.8 12.4 186.5 83.4 63.7 0.9 3.7 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.0 21.7 18.9 166.0 78.5 59.9 2.3 9.1 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.6 14.2 9.7 151.6 78.3 56.9 1.4 4.3 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 1.2 19.5 12.2 184.1 82.5 62.0 1.3 2.2 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 16.4 16.8 11.0 128.2 75.0 61.3 3.8 8.1 12.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 18.5 24.6 20.6 171.1 81.4 61.5 4.8 11.8 16.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.3 22.2 12.9 150.6 79.6 61.2 3.5 9.5 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.1 16.5 17.9 157.2 76.7 60.9 4.9 9.3 14.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 11.2 13.2 14.1 159.2 77.4 58.1 5.7 7.6 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 12.2 24.9 13.5 151.3 78.5 61.2 4.1 8.9 18.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 14.2 19.2 14.3 162.9 80.2 60.1 3.9 8.6 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 12.3 16.5 18.9 170.2 80.5 60.8 4.4 7.7 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 4.9 16.4 13.1 141.8 75.2 57.4 4.4 7.9 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 9.8 16.9 10.5 193.3 83.6 62.0 0.4 5.2 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 12.4 22.2 12.7 133.7 74.0 58.9 3.5 8.4 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.5 15.0 11.8 156.8 79.6 57.2 2.7 7.4 11.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 16.8 25.3 20.7 163.9 79.3 60.9 10.0 14.5 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 16.9 23.1 12.6 145.8 78.6 61.4 3.9 7.7 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------