***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2020.-12.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 7.6 16.8 15.8 149.7 78.3 52.4 2.1 4.7 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 2.7 17.7 14.7 155.4 77.0 51.4 2.3 5.2 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.7 16.1 15.2 138.6 73.1 48.9 5.4 7.6 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.7 20.4 14.7 139.0 75.5 54.4 6.1 9.8 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 9.9 16.8 14.5 150.9 77.1 56.3 4.0 7.6 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 11.4 17.5 16.4 137.5 75.4 58.3 4.5 8.6 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.6 16.7 14.7 161.8 79.1 55.3 1.2 5.9 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 22.6 34.5 17.3 161.7 78.5 58.0 12.3 19.3 30.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 11.6 21.9 14.5 133.2 73.6 52.6 5.0 7.8 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 16.6 30.6 18.0 157.6 77.8 57.6 8.3 12.7 25.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 12.1 18.6 14.1 148.6 77.2 56.2 4.4 10.1 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.2 22.4 13.3 150.4 77.3 56.3 4.9 10.2 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 8.7 20.2 14.8 163.1 81.8 64.0 3.0 6.4 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.4 34.6 20.3 154.9 77.0 56.9 5.7 11.8 19.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.0 9.3 11.1 129.4 74.4 52.5 1.8 4.1 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 12.0 17.3 14.1 150.0 77.9 58.9 4.4 10.2 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 6.7 17.8 14.6 159.8 78.5 53.4 1.0 3.1 6.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 21.0 28.7 21.2 155.1 77.5 58.6 9.5 19.0 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.3 24.2 14.5 146.1 74.9 50.9 2.3 8.4 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 19.9 32.8 22.7 170.4 82.5 61.4 8.3 16.6 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.2 15.0 14.7 135.3 74.4 51.2 4.3 7.3 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.9 16.5 14.5 138.8 75.4 51.5 2.7 8.9 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.3 18.0 13.8 130.9 71.4 51.2 3.5 8.4 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 17.3 26.5 18.2 142.1 74.1 55.9 5.0 12.1 21.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 2.8 19.0 17.4 152.7 79.3 56.6 3.9 5.8 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.3 17.2 11.7 136.7 77.1 56.9 2.8 6.8 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 10.0 20.6 17.7 153.9 79.8 55.3 4.4 6.9 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.2 16.6 13.2 140.4 75.9 54.9 2.0 6.4 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 26.0 35.5 22.9 153.1 77.9 58.7 15.2 23.3 30.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.6 13.0 14.9 151.9 75.8 51.9 1.9 5.1 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------