***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2020.-05.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 15.3 25.7 13.8 109.5 67.7 56.1 4.6 11.1 25.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 20.0 22.6 12.7 133.6 74.1 62.7 4.8 12.3 19.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 11.8 15.7 12.7 110.1 68.4 56.6 3.1 9.5 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 7.8 5.9 8.4 72.8 54.5 45.2 3.1 5.2 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 11.1 10.0 10.1 77.4 57.0 48.0 3.5 9.1 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.1 5.0 9.1 69.5 50.3 42.1 2.6 4.9 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 21.5 20.9 13.1 131.0 74.2 63.1 4.2 11.9 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 20.3 20.2 14.0 90.2 57.7 49.6 7.6 14.8 25.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 8.4 9.4 12.7 95.0 62.8 52.5 2.6 5.2 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 14.0 11.8 14.7 89.4 58.6 50.5 8.7 11.1 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 8.9 8.3 10.4 83.2 61.4 49.5 3.7 6.6 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.0 14.0 10.0 85.9 59.7 49.3 6.1 10.1 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 7.2 6.9 8.2 67.0 56.1 46.0 3.0 6.3 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 18.7 15.9 16.3 107.9 63.5 53.9 4.4 11.1 19.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 0.6 3.4 7.1 78.4 62.6 45.0 0.4 1.4 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 5.8 5.7 9.1 79.0 59.2 48.3 3.5 3.8 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 18.4 26.9 14.2 158.0 79.3 66.8 2.3 4.2 17.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 17.7 16.6 15.2 87.1 56.5 48.1 9.0 14.9 23.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 22.0 17.3 12.6 126.1 72.5 60.2 2.7 5.8 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 21.2 18.4 14.4 79.7 50.5 44.3 10.6 18.2 26.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 12.5 14.5 12.4 98.9 63.4 53.7 2.3 10.8 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 13.4 17.4 13.2 142.8 76.4 64.2 3.9 7.8 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.3 19.4 13.6 126.1 71.3 57.1 5.6 8.1 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 14.6 17.2 14.1 97.4 61.2 51.6 5.0 9.2 20.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 8.4 8.7 12.0 86.6 60.3 51.8 4.5 6.4 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 2.4 6.1 5.3 61.8 53.4 42.4 2.4 5.9 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 13.1 16.3 13.6 102.2 64.8 55.2 6.3 9.3 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 1.2 4.3 8.0 71.5 57.5 45.2 1.1 2.5 5.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 22.2 18.8 15.0 87.3 54.1 46.5 9.2 16.7 31.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 14.0 22.8 12.4 121.4 72.3 59.5 7.3 9.1 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------