***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2020.-26.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 28.6 28.3 29.1 -0.4 45.1 45.3 27.9 28.3 29.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 28.8 28.0 29.0 -0.7 40.4 40.5 27.8 28.4 29.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 28.7 28.1 29.1 -0.7 42.2 40.7 27.8 28.5 29.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 21.8 21.7 27.0 0.0 50.1 50.9 20.9 21.7 22.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 29.6 28.7 27.1 -0.7 40.5 39.9 27.9 29.4 29.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 28.0 28.0 25.1 0.0 50.7 50.3 27.0 27.9 28.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 27.5 28.2 28.9 -0.6 40.9 41.9 27.8 28.4 29.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 17.2 16.8 25.2 -0.7 39.2 40.5 16.1 17.0 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 28.9 28.6 27.6 -0.6 42.2 42.0 27.4 28.7 29.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 28.6 28.3 26.0 -0.5 42.7 43.9 27.5 28.4 28.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 29.0 27.6 27.1 -0.9 36.9 36.8 27.4 28.8 29.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 28.1 27.1 26.5 -1.0 34.0 34.8 27.0 28.0 28.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 28.2 27.9 26.2 -1.1 32.2 32.9 28.0 29.3 29.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 28.3 27.9 27.1 -0.6 44.8 43.3 27.5 28.0 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 29.8 29.9 29.3 0.0 54.0 52.5 28.9 29.7 30.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 30.3 28.7 26.7 -0.9 36.0 36.5 28.5 30.1 30.6 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 27.0 27.2 28.6 -0.7 37.1 38.9 27.1 27.9 28.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 27.7 27.3 25.3 -0.3 47.1 47.5 26.7 27.5 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 28.3 27.7 29.1 -0.7 41.5 40.7 27.3 28.0 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 23.4 23.0 22.9 -0.3 45.5 46.1 22.7 23.1 24.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 29.0 28.5 28.5 -0.5 44.7 43.4 27.5 28.8 29.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 28.6 28.3 29.0 -0.2 49.3 48.5 27.6 28.3 29.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 28.2 27.7 28.9 -1.0 39.4 37.9 27.5 27.8 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 28.0 27.3 27.2 -0.5 45.1 43.7 27.0 27.7 28.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 29.0 28.7 27.5 -0.5 44.3 44.6 28.1 28.8 29.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 28.8 28.2 26.4 -0.8 36.6 37.6 27.9 28.6 29.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 28.3 28.1 28.3 -0.4 45.6 45.8 27.5 28.1 28.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 29.9 29.8 27.8 -0.1 50.8 50.2 29.2 29.7 30.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 22.9 22.5 24.3 -0.2 47.7 47.8 21.8 22.7 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 28.6 28.1 29.1 -0.6 42.9 41.9 27.8 28.3 29.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------