***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2020.-12.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 26.3 26.6 27.8 -1.7 29.0 32.3 27.1 28.1 30.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 26.0 26.4 27.8 -2.0 26.4 30.5 26.6 27.7 29.1 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 25.8 25.9 27.7 -2.2 26.8 28.9 26.3 27.4 29.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 19.1 19.2 25.4 -1.3 34.7 36.2 19.1 20.6 22.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 26.5 26.1 25.6 -2.1 26.4 28.4 26.3 28.4 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 25.2 25.2 23.6 -1.4 30.2 35.2 25.5 26.7 28.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 25.8 25.9 27.6 -1.8 24.8 31.1 26.6 27.7 29.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 14.2 14.0 23.5 -2.2 24.6 26.9 14.7 15.9 16.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 74 26 0 100 26.0 26.2 26.3 -2.0 29.2 29.2 26.3 27.7 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 74 26 0 100 25.6 25.8 24.4 -2.0 28.4 29.3 26.1 27.2 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 26.1 25.8 25.6 -2.4 23.4 25.7 26.2 27.8 29.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 76 24 0 100 25.3 24.9 24.8 -2.5 20.8 24.8 25.2 26.9 28.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 77 23 0 100 26.2 26.1 24.9 -2.6 19.9 24.5 27.0 27.9 29.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 25.9 26.3 25.7 -2.0 26.7 29.4 26.6 27.1 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 27.5 27.7 28.1 -1.2 35.5 37.6 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 26.9 26.5 25.3 -2.3 22.6 26.3 27.4 29.0 30.2 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 25.3 25.2 27.3 -2.0 23.6 29.7 26.1 27.0 28.3 29 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 24.8 25.3 23.6 -1.9 28.7 30.7 25.5 26.4 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 25.5 26.1 27.9 -2.0 28.6 30.9 26.3 27.0 28.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 74 26 0 100 20.4 20.5 21.2 -2.0 24.7 29.0 20.9 22.2 23.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 25.9 26.0 27.2 -1.9 29.7 30.4 26.2 27.7 29.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 26.1 26.8 27.9 -1.3 33.2 36.6 26.8 27.7 28.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 25.6 26.1 27.6 -2.3 27.3 28.3 26.4 27.3 28.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 25.3 25.6 25.7 -2.1 28.0 29.1 26.2 27.0 27.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 26.2 26.0 26.2 -1.8 29.2 31.6 26.1 27.9 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 78 22 0 100 25.8 25.6 24.7 -2.3 21.7 26.8 26.4 27.7 29.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 25.7 25.8 27.0 -1.7 29.0 32.5 26.1 27.4 28.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 27.6 27.2 26.4 -1.4 33.2 35.6 27.2 29.0 30.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 75 25 0 100 19.6 20.8 22.6 -1.9 27.6 30.1 20.9 21.5 22.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 25.7 26.0 27.9 -1.9 27.2 31.0 26.5 27.5 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------