***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2020.-05.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 29.9 29.9 29.2 0.9 67.0 65.3 27.9 29.2 29.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 28.9 29.2 29.0 0.2 57.7 56.6 27.1 28.7 29.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 28.6 29.5 29.1 0.4 60.5 58.5 27.3 28.4 29.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 23.0 23.2 26.6 1.4 70.4 68.5 19.7 21.1 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 48 52 100 30.2 30.4 27.4 0.8 63.2 62.0 27.7 28.8 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 29.1 28.8 25.5 1.5 69.4 68.0 26.2 27.6 28.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 28.8 29.1 28.7 0.4 62.5 59.4 27.3 28.5 29.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 17.3 18.0 25.3 0.9 63.3 62.7 15.8 17.0 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 29.7 30.3 28.4 1.0 66.0 64.8 27.0 28.5 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 47 53 100 29.4 29.6 26.3 1.1 65.9 64.5 26.9 28.3 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 28.7 29.2 27.8 0.6 59.5 58.6 27.0 28.4 30.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 91 9 100 27.8 28.6 26.4 0.5 57.5 57.6 26.3 27.5 29.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 93 7 100 29.0 29.0 27.2 0.3 51.8 52.7 27.5 28.8 30.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 28.4 29.3 27.9 0.9 68.0 64.5 27.0 28.2 29.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 29.7 31.0 29.7 1.0 65.8 64.3 27.8 29.3 31.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 93 7 100 29.9 29.9 27.2 0.5 55.8 55.7 27.6 29.7 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 28.4 28.4 28.3 0.1 55.7 55.1 26.5 28.2 29.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 28.9 28.5 25.6 1.4 67.7 67.9 26.1 27.9 28.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 28.2 28.5 29.1 0.3 57.9 57.2 26.4 28.0 28.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 24.8 24.8 23.6 1.5 69.2 69.1 22.0 23.4 24.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 29.9 30.2 29.2 1.0 67.7 65.4 27.4 28.5 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 29.3 29.5 29.0 0.9 68.3 64.8 26.8 28.3 29.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 28.3 28.8 28.8 0.1 54.9 55.0 26.9 28.1 29.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 45 55 100 28.8 29.0 27.9 1.0 65.0 64.3 26.4 27.5 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 29.9 29.9 28.0 0.9 66.3 64.1 27.4 28.5 29.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 92 8 100 28.7 28.9 26.1 0.7 56.4 57.2 27.0 28.5 29.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 29.5 29.3 28.5 0.9 68.1 65.5 27.2 28.0 29.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 29.8 31.3 27.8 1.2 66.7 64.8 27.5 29.5 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 24.0 24.0 24.9 1.5 68.9 69.0 21.2 22.9 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 28.5 29.0 29.1 0.4 62.0 59.5 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------