***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2020.-26.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 16.0 16.1 18.6 0.2 58.1 56.2 15.1 15.9 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 15.7 15.8 18.5 0.0 55.2 53.0 15.0 15.4 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 17.6 17.7 18.8 0.0 53.4 52.7 16.9 17.5 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 13.1 13.5 16.4 0.4 66.5 63.7 12.1 13.0 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 14.2 14.3 16.4 0.1 54.3 54.4 13.8 14.1 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 47 53 100 13.3 13.5 14.5 0.5 69.8 66.9 12.6 12.9 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 16.1 16.1 18.5 0.0 55.6 53.1 15.3 15.9 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 8.5 8.6 14.1 0.2 59.5 56.4 7.9 8.3 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 15.4 15.5 16.5 0.2 58.9 57.3 14.8 15.2 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 15.3 15.5 14.9 0.2 63.2 59.0 14.4 15.1 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 15.3 15.2 16.0 0.0 50.6 50.3 14.4 15.2 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 13.1 13.1 15.0 0.0 52.5 51.4 12.5 12.9 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.4 14.6 0.0 50.2 51.1 13.7 14.4 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 16.2 16.5 16.4 0.2 64.5 59.1 15.4 16.0 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 16.7 17.2 18.2 0.4 66.7 63.8 15.8 16.6 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 15.6 15.5 15.4 0.0 51.5 51.4 14.8 15.5 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 16.5 16.5 18.1 0.0 54.9 51.3 16.0 16.4 16.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 14.2 14.5 14.2 0.4 70.5 65.0 13.1 13.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 15.7 15.7 18.5 0.0 55.2 52.6 15.3 15.6 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 10.1 10.2 12.1 0.4 69.0 64.5 8.8 9.5 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 15.1 15.3 17.8 0.1 57.0 56.0 14.5 15.0 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 15.4 15.5 18.4 0.2 62.6 57.3 14.9 15.2 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 15.1 15.0 18.4 -0.1 52.1 49.9 14.6 14.9 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 15.9 16.2 16.4 0.2 64.7 59.5 14.8 15.8 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 15.4 15.5 17.3 0.2 60.5 57.0 14.8 15.2 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 14.2 14.2 14.2 0.2 56.2 55.3 13.4 14.0 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 15.6 15.7 17.9 0.2 60.5 57.5 14.5 15.5 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 88 12 100 14.5 14.5 16.9 0.3 64.3 62.0 13.5 14.4 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 13.1 13.3 13.6 0.3 69.0 63.1 12.0 12.5 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 16.2 16.2 18.7 0.0 54.4 53.5 15.4 16.1 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------