***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2020.-26.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 16.2 15.8 19.4 0.2 53.8 53.1 15.5 15.7 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 16.1 15.8 19.2 0.0 51.0 50.7 14.8 15.7 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 17.9 17.8 19.6 0.1 51.8 51.6 16.7 17.6 18.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 13.9 14.0 17.1 0.4 60.2 56.6 12.2 13.6 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 14.5 14.2 16.7 0.0 51.0 49.9 13.6 14.2 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 13.0 13.0 15.2 0.4 60.0 57.0 12.4 12.8 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 16.7 16.2 19.3 0.0 51.0 50.9 15.2 16.2 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 8.9 8.6 14.7 0.0 51.7 50.6 8.1 8.5 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 15.8 15.6 16.8 0.1 52.6 51.9 14.6 15.6 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 15.4 15.2 15.4 0.1 54.9 53.0 14.4 15.1 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.0 14.6 16.3 -0.2 47.2 47.5 14.2 14.7 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.1 15.5 -0.2 46.6 47.2 12.3 13.1 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 14.3 14.0 14.6 0.0 49.2 49.9 13.4 14.0 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.2 16.0 16.8 0.0 51.9 51.3 15.0 15.8 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 16.9 16.7 18.8 0.5 62.8 59.4 15.8 16.6 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 15.8 15.4 15.6 0.0 49.5 49.9 14.7 15.4 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 15.6 16.6 18.8 -0.1 49.9 49.6 15.7 16.6 17.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 14.2 14.2 14.6 0.3 58.5 56.5 12.8 14.0 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 16.1 15.7 19.2 0.0 50.2 50.0 14.8 15.7 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 9.6 9.5 12.2 0.3 56.0 55.4 8.7 9.2 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 15.4 15.2 18.3 0.1 53.8 52.3 14.4 15.1 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 15.9 15.7 18.9 0.1 53.7 51.4 14.7 15.6 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 15.4 14.7 19.0 -0.2 47.5 48.2 14.1 14.8 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 15.9 15.7 16.7 0.1 55.3 53.2 14.8 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.4 17.8 0.3 54.5 54.2 14.5 15.1 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 14.3 14.0 14.6 0.1 53.3 52.3 13.5 14.0 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.7 18.5 0.3 54.8 54.0 14.3 15.1 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 14.2 14.2 17.6 0.5 61.9 57.8 13.6 13.9 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 13.1 13.0 14.0 0.2 55.9 55.0 11.9 12.7 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 16.7 16.3 19.4 0.0 51.4 51.2 15.2 16.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------