***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2020.-12.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 14.5 14.7 17.8 -0.7 35.2 38.0 14.6 15.1 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 13.6 14.0 17.6 -0.9 31.2 34.6 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 15.8 15.9 17.9 -0.9 33.8 34.7 15.8 17.0 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.4 11.7 15.5 -0.5 41.1 43.2 11.0 11.8 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 13.0 12.8 15.7 -0.7 37.3 39.1 12.7 14.0 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 13.1 12.3 13.7 -0.2 45.1 47.0 11.7 12.8 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 14.0 14.4 17.5 -1.0 30.5 34.4 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 6.7 6.7 13.3 -0.6 36.5 40.3 6.5 7.9 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 15.3 14.3 15.9 -0.6 38.8 41.0 14.1 15.1 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 14.0 13.8 14.2 -0.5 37.6 41.4 13.8 15.0 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 15.3 13.7 15.4 -0.7 35.4 38.6 13.6 15.0 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 11.5 11.4 14.3 -0.8 33.2 37.8 11.4 12.9 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 12.7 12.8 14.1 -0.7 33.3 39.0 12.8 14.0 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 14.5 14.8 15.7 -0.6 34.9 39.1 14.7 15.6 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 16.6 15.9 17.6 -0.4 44.2 45.4 15.7 16.2 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 13.9 14.5 14.8 -0.7 33.9 38.7 14.5 15.2 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 14.6 14.5 17.2 -1.0 30.1 34.2 14.7 15.4 16.4 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 12.1 12.1 13.5 -0.5 36.2 41.4 11.9 13.1 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 13.8 14.1 17.7 -0.9 32.6 34.9 14.1 14.8 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 8.2 8.1 11.5 -0.5 35.0 41.4 8.0 9.8 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 14.9 13.8 17.1 -0.7 37.5 39.4 13.5 14.5 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 13.9 14.5 17.6 -0.7 35.9 38.5 14.2 14.9 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 13.4 13.6 17.5 -1.1 31.7 33.0 13.7 14.2 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 14.3 14.5 15.6 -0.6 35.3 38.8 14.4 15.3 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 13.9 14.1 16.5 -0.7 35.8 38.9 14.1 15.0 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 14.1 12.7 13.4 -0.6 35.9 39.6 12.5 13.8 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 13.5 14.2 17.1 -0.7 35.0 38.5 14.1 14.6 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 14.5 13.2 16.1 -0.5 41.2 43.7 13.1 14.2 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 10.8 11.1 12.8 -0.5 36.8 41.5 10.9 11.9 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 14.1 14.3 17.8 -0.9 32.2 34.9 14.3 15.5 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------