***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2020.-05.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 16.7 16.9 19.0 1.4 80.1 75.6 15.2 16.0 16.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 16.8 17.2 18.8 1.2 77.7 73.0 14.0 15.8 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 18.3 18.4 19.1 1.1 75.6 71.9 16.4 17.5 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 14.1 15.0 16.7 1.6 81.9 79.1 12.0 12.4 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 15.4 15.8 17.3 1.5 80.8 76.3 13.9 14.6 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 15 85 100 14.4 14.7 14.7 1.7 84.7 82.0 12.8 13.6 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 16.8 17.1 18.6 1.2 78.4 73.6 14.9 15.9 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 9.5 10.0 14.5 1.4 81.0 77.8 7.7 8.5 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 16.6 16.9 17.5 1.4 80.9 77.0 14.6 15.6 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 16.2 16.5 15.5 1.4 80.8 77.7 14.8 15.1 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 16.1 16.4 16.8 1.1 77.3 72.7 14.7 15.3 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 14.3 14.6 15.6 1.3 78.4 75.0 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 15.6 15.8 15.6 0.9 74.3 69.6 14.2 14.8 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 17.0 17.4 17.2 1.5 81.5 77.7 15.2 15.9 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 17.5 17.8 18.6 1.4 80.5 76.5 16.1 16.9 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 16.7 17.2 16.3 1.1 76.7 71.1 15.2 15.5 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 17.1 17.5 18.4 1.1 76.1 72.5 14.9 16.1 17.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 15.2 15.6 15.0 1.6 82.7 80.0 13.1 13.7 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 16.5 16.8 18.9 1.2 76.9 72.7 14.6 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 16 84 100 10.9 11.3 13.1 1.6 82.2 79.6 9.3 9.8 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 16.2 16.5 18.5 1.3 80.4 75.2 14.5 15.3 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 16.1 16.4 18.9 1.4 79.0 75.8 14.2 15.1 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 15.8 16.0 18.8 1.1 75.4 71.1 14.1 15.2 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 16.8 17.1 17.2 1.4 80.6 77.1 14.8 16.0 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 16.3 16.6 18.1 1.5 79.1 75.5 14.7 15.7 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 15.3 15.6 14.7 1.3 79.6 75.9 13.9 14.6 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 16.2 16.6 18.5 1.5 80.4 76.3 14.3 15.2 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 15.4 15.8 17.2 1.3 79.2 75.4 14.1 14.2 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 13.9 14.3 14.2 1.5 82.0 79.4 11.7 12.3 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 17.0 17.3 19.1 1.3 78.1 73.7 14.8 16.2 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------