***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2015.-26.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 27.5 31.0 18.3 54.9 37.5 30.7 27.5 46.3 65.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 28.0 29.6 16.2 46.1 28.4 23.7 30.9 41.0 58.0 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 24.9 27.0 15.9 47.7 29.4 26.0 30.2 44.9 58.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 32.6 44.7 25.1 62.8 43.3 37.0 35.5 48.3 69.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 26.0 40.8 21.8 54.6 37.4 31.3 36.6 46.7 60.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 30.7 40.8 35.5 65.9 37.4 35.3 39.8 53.7 58.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 79 21 0 100 24.0 23.1 16.5 45.7 29.5 23.3 23.8 40.7 58.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 51.1 56.7 28.8 65.0 36.4 34.8 53.7 77.1 107.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 20.8 30.5 20.5 51.0 34.5 29.1 28.2 38.2 66.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 40.3 44.2 27.1 56.5 33.3 31.0 44.2 60.9 78.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 20.6 26.1 19.9 59.3 37.6 33.4 25.4 38.5 57.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 31.7 38.4 21.3 64.4 39.2 35.7 36.6 51.9 68.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 17.7 22.3 23.2 58.7 33.1 32.7 22.3 37.3 45.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 42.6 40.9 22.0 46.4 25.6 25.8 51.1 65.9 77.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 39.9 25.2 22.4 63.4 47.4 38.8 18.6 32.2 50.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 19.1 28.4 22.5 62.5 38.7 35.3 25.8 36.1 42.4 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 26.8 30.8 15.5 44.2 27.3 21.9 33.9 45.8 62.1 29 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 42.3 47.7 29.6 53.7 33.1 29.8 47.6 62.8 88.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 76 24 0 100 29.0 29.7 15.6 45.7 27.5 24.5 31.4 38.6 59.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 40.8 50.7 35.5 64.3 36.7 34.5 48.7 60.3 70.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 25.7 22.9 17.0 49.9 35.2 28.9 22.1 45.3 61.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 78 22 0 100 34.0 34.1 16.0 45.1 24.5 23.0 37.3 48.9 57.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 76 24 0 100 28.2 36.4 15.4 44.3 25.8 25.3 38.6 49.1 55.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 30.6 34.0 22.5 48.8 28.4 27.4 36.1 55.5 85.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 30.0 34.7 24.1 56.5 41.0 31.7 31.6 42.5 52.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 20.2 23.6 20.6 67.2 38.8 36.8 20.9 30.4 44.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 30.7 47.1 23.1 55.7 37.7 30.2 44.7 50.3 61.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 26.9 43.0 23.3 62.1 44.3 36.7 25.0 45.0 58.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 53.0 62.4 30.8 56.7 32.8 30.6 62.4 77.4 103.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 76 24 0 100 28.5 28.0 16.2 47.2 30.5 24.8 29.5 38.3 64.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------