***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2015.-26.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 2.0 11.5 3.7 72.1 66.8 46.9 1.1 4.0 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 5.8 5.6 3.4 64.0 64.2 49.8 0.9 2.7 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.3 21.6 3.0 61.9 65.7 45.0 1.4 7.1 21.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 3.1 17.5 5.2 68.1 61.5 44.4 4.2 6.7 20.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 1.0 13.0 5.5 75.4 67.8 41.4 0.4 2.5 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.6 15.6 10.0 100.3 68.4 52.0 0.7 7.6 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 8.3 15.6 3.8 68.2 68.1 50.2 1.7 5.3 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 4.3 21.3 7.5 91.6 70.6 46.3 2.5 9.9 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 1.6 20.5 5.1 71.0 71.9 39.7 0.5 3.8 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 4.7 28.3 7.1 84.2 70.6 44.0 3.1 11.3 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 1.9 15.8 5.7 96.9 71.4 45.1 0.8 4.3 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 2.7 18.0 5.6 98.4 73.6 47.9 0.2 6.7 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 1.4 10.3 6.7 104.6 72.0 49.5 0.9 2.9 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.7 32.4 6.0 80.4 70.1 47.1 1.8 9.4 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 1.0 8.2 3.7 60.4 65.7 44.6 0.8 2.3 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 1.9 9.3 6.4 107.1 71.7 49.0 2.1 4.0 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 10.1 17.6 3.4 59.4 64.6 48.1 1.7 4.6 20.6 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 3.7 27.8 8.2 85.3 69.6 46.3 4.4 8.6 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 10.9 17.0 3.2 64.3 65.7 50.1 2.5 7.2 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 2.9 12.5 9.7 96.9 67.1 46.4 2.9 7.1 11.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 2.0 23.5 3.4 58.5 68.9 43.2 0.5 4.7 21.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 11.2 20.5 3.7 65.0 67.6 50.2 3.2 5.9 20.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 9.8 18.7 3.3 67.8 67.8 48.0 1.6 5.4 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.6 29.5 5.6 74.8 68.7 45.6 0.6 7.8 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 2.2 13.0 4.7 62.8 61.9 41.5 1.0 4.6 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 9.9 17.9 4.7 101.6 72.0 53.3 0.1 5.7 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.4 17.2 5.0 72.7 67.2 44.4 3.0 7.0 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.5 13.6 4.9 70.8 65.4 45.8 2.2 5.0 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 5.4 29.0 8.5 91.0 70.3 46.8 4.2 12.3 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 11.9 14.9 3.4 66.9 65.0 48.3 3.0 8.4 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------