***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2015.-19.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 4.4 17.2 5.8 70.5 65.6 41.5 4.0 9.5 17.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 3.5 10.6 5.6 70.0 57.4 36.9 2.9 9.1 14.0 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 3.1 9.6 5.3 69.2 61.6 37.8 4.5 7.4 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 4.2 14.4 6.7 67.3 67.5 37.3 4.2 8.6 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 5.0 14.4 6.0 65.3 62.4 34.3 5.6 11.7 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 2.1 5.8 8.9 60.5 53.8 37.9 1.3 4.4 15.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 2.9 7.6 5.5 63.8 57.3 35.0 3.5 6.3 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 6.5 19.4 9.1 94.6 61.4 38.1 7.8 15.8 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 2.8 12.4 5.3 59.5 58.4 34.1 4.0 8.4 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 3.8 10.9 7.8 75.9 57.4 35.2 6.0 9.9 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 1.8 8.9 5.3 69.7 63.7 36.6 2.2 5.0 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 5.4 18.4 6.8 92.7 66.6 42.7 0.8 13.4 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 1.4 6.2 6.6 70.1 60.2 37.7 0.9 3.7 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 4.0 11.0 6.7 64.1 53.6 36.4 2.3 9.1 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 1.7 11.2 5.3 57.1 71.7 42.3 1.4 4.3 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 1.1 5.1 5.5 63.9 62.8 39.9 1.3 2.2 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 3.7 9.4 5.6 77.3 60.9 37.8 3.8 8.1 12.5 29 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 5.9 12.9 9.2 75.1 54.5 38.1 4.8 11.8 16.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 4.4 12.8 5.4 73.9 59.1 37.3 3.5 9.5 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.1 10.8 11.2 88.7 57.5 40.0 4.9 9.3 14.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 2.9 10.3 4.8 65.6 63.2 36.3 5.7 7.6 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 3.8 12.1 5.7 76.1 61.0 36.0 4.1 8.9 18.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 3.6 9.9 5.3 73.3 59.6 37.0 3.9 8.6 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 3.6 9.7 7.1 69.9 55.8 37.6 4.4 7.7 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 4.0 10.5 6.5 63.0 63.2 35.5 4.4 7.9 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 2.5 7.9 4.7 75.0 60.6 43.1 0.4 5.2 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 3.7 13.1 6.5 63.1 62.1 37.1 3.5 8.4 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 2.7 12.4 5.8 62.0 69.7 39.7 2.7 7.4 11.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 8.5 15.8 9.6 77.6 54.4 38.9 10.0 14.5 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 3.2 13.5 5.6 67.4 59.4 36.6 3.9 7.7 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------