***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2015.-12.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 2.2 4.7 3.8 47.7 52.1 35.4 2.1 4.7 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 1.9 4.4 3.1 34.7 44.3 30.6 2.3 5.2 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 2.2 6.5 3.1 35.8 42.5 29.1 5.4 7.6 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 3.8 9.7 4.0 40.8 46.3 33.5 6.1 9.8 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 2.7 7.1 3.8 37.5 48.7 29.6 4.0 7.6 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.6 7.6 5.1 39.5 44.5 33.8 4.5 8.6 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 1.9 5.0 3.4 38.0 47.6 31.5 1.2 5.9 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 8.6 18.5 4.3 38.7 47.6 28.9 12.3 19.3 30.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 74 26 0 100 2.1 6.7 3.8 37.2 48.2 30.6 5.0 7.8 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 6.7 9.8 4.4 34.7 45.2 28.0 8.3 12.7 25.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 4.9 10.2 2.6 31.8 50.0 32.3 4.4 10.1 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 4.7 10.8 2.7 36.0 52.5 35.6 4.9 10.2 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.2 6.9 3.4 37.0 51.3 32.2 3.0 6.4 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 75 25 0 100 4.7 7.8 4.4 34.8 38.4 26.9 5.7 11.8 19.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 1.4 3.9 3.6 41.4 49.4 34.0 1.8 4.1 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 5.2 11.3 3.1 36.7 52.9 33.9 4.4 10.2 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 0.9 2.7 3.1 33.4 44.5 28.8 1.0 3.1 6.7 29 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 7.8 13.5 4.7 31.7 37.9 28.0 9.5 19.0 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 3.0 6.1 2.9 32.8 42.3 30.8 2.3 8.4 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 7.1 14.4 6.0 43.6 45.8 32.1 8.3 16.6 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 3.0 7.3 3.3 40.7 49.4 28.2 4.3 7.3 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 75 25 0 100 2.2 7.9 3.3 36.2 44.1 30.7 2.7 8.9 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 77 23 0 100 2.4 5.6 2.8 30.1 41.0 29.8 3.5 8.4 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 4.6 5.3 4.1 33.0 36.5 27.3 5.0 12.1 21.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 1.9 5.7 5.1 47.3 48.5 31.7 3.9 5.8 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 8.8 8.2 4.0 62.3 56.8 44.0 2.8 6.8 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 2.8 7.0 5.0 49.2 50.1 31.6 4.4 6.9 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 2.3 6.2 3.2 36.5 47.7 32.2 2.0 6.4 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 12.1 15.8 5.0 35.3 39.3 29.3 15.2 23.3 30.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 1.7 3.7 3.0 34.7 43.8 29.6 1.9 5.1 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------