***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2015.-05.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 5.4 5.9 5.0 41.7 38.3 32.0 4.6 11.1 25.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 79 21 0 100 3.5 4.7 4.1 31.9 31.8 24.7 4.8 12.3 19.9 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 3.3 3.3 4.5 36.9 33.8 27.1 3.1 9.5 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 2.7 5.2 9.3 72.9 52.8 44.1 3.1 5.2 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 3.2 4.7 6.5 48.7 39.6 33.0 3.5 9.1 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 7.2 5.5 11.5 70.5 54.2 47.4 2.6 4.9 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 76 24 0 100 3.2 2.8 3.8 29.5 30.7 23.8 4.2 11.9 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 7.5 12.4 8.0 50.9 40.7 35.2 7.6 14.8 25.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 1.5 2.7 6.3 45.7 34.5 31.2 2.6 5.2 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 6.9 8.9 7.8 46.8 36.9 32.3 8.7 11.1 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.6 6.3 6.2 53.3 47.4 38.7 3.7 6.6 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 4.5 8.1 6.2 49.8 44.9 36.6 6.1 10.1 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 7.3 4.0 6.5 45.1 42.7 35.4 3.0 6.3 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 82 18 0 100 4.0 3.7 4.9 29.1 27.5 21.2 4.4 11.1 19.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 0.6 4.3 9.8 87.4 63.8 48.7 0.4 1.4 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.0 3.8 7.5 58.2 50.4 41.9 3.5 3.8 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 81 19 0 100 1.0 1.6 3.5 26.7 25.7 21.8 2.3 4.2 17.1 29 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 4.2 9.2 7.5 40.8 34.7 29.1 9.0 14.9 23.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 78 22 0 100 1.6 2.6 4.0 31.5 31.9 24.9 2.7 5.8 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 6.6 10.9 8.6 46.2 35.0 30.0 10.6 18.2 26.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 3.6 2.5 5.5 42.9 33.6 31.7 2.3 10.8 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 81 19 0 100 1.5 2.5 3.3 25.2 26.0 22.5 3.9 7.8 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 79 21 0 100 2.5 5.4 4.0 30.1 32.6 24.0 5.6 8.1 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 77 23 0 100 3.7 5.0 5.6 35.6 32.9 26.7 5.0 9.2 20.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 2.8 4.8 7.8 55.4 41.4 36.4 4.5 6.4 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 8.7 5.9 7.1 53.9 49.2 39.2 2.4 5.9 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 5.5 7.2 6.6 46.8 39.0 33.6 6.3 9.3 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 1.2 4.0 9.4 75.1 56.6 46.3 1.1 2.5 5.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 5.4 9.5 7.6 41.8 34.2 28.9 9.2 16.7 31.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 4.4 7.8 4.2 34.5 34.4 25.8 7.3 9.1 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------