***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2015.-26.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 29.5 30.0 31.2 1.8 83.8 77.4 27.9 28.3 29.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 13 87 100 29.7 30.4 31.9 2.2 84.9 80.3 27.8 28.4 29.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 29.4 29.7 31.2 1.7 80.6 75.6 27.8 28.5 29.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 22.2 22.3 28.6 0.9 70.8 66.4 20.9 21.7 22.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 30.0 30.0 28.8 1.0 71.4 67.5 27.9 29.4 29.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 28.1 28.2 25.7 0.3 64.6 57.2 27.0 27.9 28.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 13 87 100 29.6 30.0 31.7 2.2 84.2 80.5 27.8 28.4 29.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 17.6 17.7 27.0 1.1 72.9 68.8 16.1 17.0 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 29.5 29.4 29.4 1.3 72.2 71.7 27.4 28.7 29.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 29.0 28.9 27.8 1.2 71.8 69.9 27.5 28.4 28.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 29.5 29.6 28.2 0.9 72.2 67.4 27.4 28.8 29.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 28.4 28.6 28.2 1.2 74.7 69.9 27.0 28.0 28.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 29.7 29.9 27.4 0.7 71.3 63.7 28.0 29.3 29.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 29.0 29.4 29.3 1.7 79.9 77.1 27.5 28.0 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 30.2 30.3 29.7 1.0 73.9 69.4 28.9 29.7 30.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 30.7 30.7 27.9 0.6 69.6 62.6 28.5 30.1 30.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 29.0 29.3 31.3 2.0 81.2 78.7 27.1 27.9 28.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 28.1 28.2 27.1 1.3 73.8 71.8 26.7 27.5 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 12 88 100 29.2 29.7 31.9 2.2 85.7 80.3 27.3 28.0 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 23.8 24.1 24.8 1.0 70.0 66.7 22.7 23.1 24.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 29.6 29.8 30.4 1.4 75.0 72.8 27.5 28.8 29.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 13 87 100 29.5 30.1 31.3 2.2 83.7 80.1 27.6 28.3 29.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 29.3 29.7 31.4 2.2 85.6 80.5 27.5 27.8 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 28.8 29.0 29.1 1.6 76.6 74.9 27.0 27.7 28.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 29.6 29.9 29.3 1.4 78.9 73.7 28.1 28.8 29.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 29.1 29.3 27.6 0.8 71.4 65.1 27.9 28.6 29.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 29.2 29.6 30.2 1.8 82.8 77.4 27.5 28.1 28.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 30.3 30.2 29.0 0.7 67.4 63.5 29.2 29.7 30.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 23.5 23.8 26.1 1.3 74.5 71.4 21.8 22.7 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 29.4 29.9 31.9 2.1 85.0 79.8 27.8 28.3 29.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------