***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2015.-26.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 30.6 31.3 32.6 2.1 78.4 69.7 27.6 29.4 30.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 30.6 31.5 33.0 2.2 75.5 70.0 27.8 28.5 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 30.4 30.9 32.5 2.0 74.9 68.4 27.8 29.3 30.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 23.7 24.2 30.5 1.4 72.4 65.5 21.4 22.3 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 31.0 31.5 30.4 1.6 73.8 66.1 28.1 30.1 31.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 29.6 30.1 27.9 1.5 73.5 66.0 27.3 28.8 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 30.2 31.3 32.8 2.2 77.1 70.6 27.6 28.5 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 19.1 19.5 28.8 1.8 77.2 67.9 16.7 18.0 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 30.7 31.1 30.8 1.8 75.1 67.5 27.5 29.5 30.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 30.4 30.6 29.3 1.8 75.9 67.2 27.8 29.3 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 30.8 31.4 29.9 1.7 75.5 67.0 27.8 29.2 30.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 30.0 30.8 30.1 1.9 77.7 68.8 27.5 28.3 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 31.1 31.4 29.3 1.7 73.7 66.9 28.3 30.1 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 30.4 30.9 30.3 1.9 74.9 67.2 27.4 29.0 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 31.6 32.0 31.2 1.6 73.8 67.3 29.3 30.5 31.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 31.7 31.7 29.7 1.4 71.1 65.4 28.9 30.5 31.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 28.6 30.9 32.3 1.9 73.2 67.5 27.4 27.9 30.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 29.6 29.9 28.6 1.9 77.0 67.2 27.0 28.4 28.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 29.9 30.8 33.0 2.2 75.3 69.9 27.7 28.2 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 25.6 26.1 26.3 1.6 76.5 65.1 23.1 24.3 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 30.8 31.3 31.8 1.8 74.6 67.8 27.4 29.5 30.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 30.1 31.1 32.1 1.9 73.3 67.3 27.2 28.3 30.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 30.1 31.0 32.5 2.2 76.1 69.9 27.7 28.4 30.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 29.9 30.5 30.4 1.9 75.8 67.8 27.1 28.7 29.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 30.8 31.4 30.7 1.8 78.0 68.4 27.8 29.8 30.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 30.9 31.3 29.6 1.7 76.9 67.6 28.5 29.9 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 30.0 30.8 31.6 2.1 79.8 69.7 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 30.7 32.0 30.8 1.4 70.3 65.0 28.7 30.4 31.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 25.2 26.1 27.5 1.8 78.1 66.7 22.5 23.4 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 30.3 31.0 33.1 2.2 76.0 70.3 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------