***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2015.-19.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 30.5 31.6 32.5 3.1 88.0 79.7 27.4 28.2 29.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 30.2 32.0 33.2 3.5 90.2 80.9 27.7 28.4 29.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 17 83 100 30.3 31.6 32.6 3.0 86.7 79.1 27.4 28.4 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 23.1 24.2 30.2 2.2 81.9 74.3 21.0 21.5 22.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 30.6 31.4 30.2 2.4 82.8 75.1 28.1 28.6 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 28.8 29.5 27.3 1.9 79.1 71.1 26.6 27.6 28.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 15 85 100 30.5 31.6 33.0 3.4 90.3 80.6 27.9 28.2 29.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 18 82 100 18.0 19.5 28.6 2.6 83.8 76.6 15.6 16.8 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 30.0 31.8 30.6 2.7 84.3 76.6 27.4 28.0 29.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 29.4 30.6 29.1 2.6 83.3 76.2 27.3 27.9 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 30.0 31.7 29.7 2.4 83.1 75.6 27.7 28.1 29.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 17 83 100 29.0 30.6 29.8 2.7 84.9 77.4 27.0 27.7 28.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 30.0 31.4 28.9 2.3 83.3 74.1 28.0 28.7 29.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 17 83 100 29.7 30.8 30.5 3.0 86.1 78.5 27.2 28.3 29.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 30.7 32.0 30.8 2.3 83.8 75.7 29.0 30.0 30.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 31.2 32.2 29.3 2.1 81.4 72.8 28.7 29.5 30.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 29.9 31.0 32.5 3.2 88.0 78.7 26.9 28.0 29.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 28.4 30.2 28.6 2.7 83.8 76.7 26.6 27.0 28.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 29.9 30.8 33.2 3.5 89.7 81.1 27.5 28.1 28.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 24.3 25.4 26.3 2.4 82.2 74.6 22.0 22.9 23.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 30.5 31.6 31.6 2.8 85.0 77.6 27.2 28.3 29.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 30.0 31.4 32.5 3.3 87.3 79.6 27.6 28.5 29.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 29.8 31.9 32.8 3.5 90.1 81.2 27.2 28.1 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 29.5 30.7 30.4 2.9 85.4 78.1 26.8 27.5 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 30.2 32.1 30.5 2.7 85.8 78.0 27.9 28.7 29.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 29.6 30.8 29.3 2.4 84.1 74.8 27.7 28.3 29.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 29.9 31.6 31.5 3.0 88.0 79.7 27.0 28.0 29.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 30.9 31.3 30.3 2.0 80.2 72.7 28.7 29.9 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 23.9 25.4 27.5 2.7 83.5 76.4 21.5 22.5 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 13 87 100 30.1 31.8 33.2 3.4 90.1 81.0 27.5 28.3 28.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------