***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2015.-12.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 30.1 31.1 32.1 3.1 89.7 83.7 27.1 28.1 30.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 11 89 100 29.7 31.7 33.0 3.7 90.5 84.8 26.6 27.7 29.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 13 87 100 30.4 31.3 32.1 3.1 88.6 82.9 26.3 27.4 29.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 22.7 23.4 29.5 2.0 82.8 76.2 19.1 20.6 22.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 30.4 31.5 29.5 2.1 82.8 76.9 26.3 28.4 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 28.6 29.5 26.2 1.1 73.6 66.1 25.5 26.7 28.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 29.9 31.1 32.7 3.6 90.6 84.7 26.6 27.7 29.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 18 82 100 18.0 18.6 27.9 2.2 83.2 76.8 14.7 15.9 16.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 29.9 31.2 30.0 2.4 84.0 79.1 26.3 27.7 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 29.5 30.4 28.5 2.3 83.4 77.8 26.1 27.2 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 29.6 30.6 28.9 2.0 81.9 76.4 26.2 27.8 29.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 17 83 100 29.0 29.6 29.0 2.3 83.1 77.0 25.2 26.9 28.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 29.7 30.6 27.9 1.7 77.5 71.6 27.0 27.9 29.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 13 87 100 29.5 30.9 30.1 3.1 87.4 82.3 26.6 27.1 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 30.5 31.5 30.2 2.1 84.7 77.7 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 30.4 31.1 28.4 1.6 78.2 71.8 27.4 29.0 30.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 10 90 100 29.7 30.7 32.4 3.6 89.9 83.8 26.1 27.0 28.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 28.8 30.1 28.0 2.6 83.0 79.0 25.5 26.4 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 11 89 100 29.5 31.1 32.9 3.7 90.1 85.0 26.3 27.0 28.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 19 81 100 24.1 25.5 25.6 2.1 81.6 75.5 20.9 22.2 23.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 30.4 31.3 31.1 2.7 85.6 80.7 26.2 27.7 29.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 8 92 100 30.1 30.9 32.3 3.7 89.9 84.8 26.8 27.7 28.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 10 90 100 30.3 31.0 32.4 3.7 89.3 85.2 26.4 27.3 28.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 13 87 100 29.6 30.4 30.0 2.9 85.8 81.5 26.2 27.0 27.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 30.2 31.2 30.0 2.7 88.1 81.3 26.1 27.9 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 29.7 30.3 28.3 1.8 80.5 72.4 26.4 27.7 29.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 14 86 100 29.8 30.7 31.0 3.0 89.7 83.5 26.1 27.4 28.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 30.9 31.8 29.6 1.7 80.7 73.4 27.2 29.0 30.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 24.9 25.8 27.0 2.5 83.1 78.7 20.9 21.5 22.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 11 89 100 29.9 31.0 32.9 3.6 90.1 84.7 26.5 27.5 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------