***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2015.-05.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 29.4 28.1 27.5 -1.0 41.3 40.3 27.9 29.2 29.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 28.9 28.4 28.4 -0.6 47.2 46.1 27.1 28.7 29.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 28.8 27.8 27.5 -1.2 40.7 39.5 27.3 28.4 29.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 19.0 19.1 24.3 -2.2 24.0 27.3 19.7 21.1 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 26.9 27.0 25.0 -2.2 25.6 28.8 27.7 28.8 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 84 16 0 100 24.9 24.8 21.4 -3.1 18.3 19.4 26.2 27.6 28.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 28.8 28.4 28.2 -0.6 45.1 44.5 27.3 28.5 29.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 14.6 15.4 22.8 -2.3 26.0 28.7 15.8 17.0 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 26.5 26.9 26.2 -1.7 29.7 32.5 27.0 28.5 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 26.3 26.5 24.1 -2.0 29.0 31.1 26.9 28.3 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 26.4 26.4 24.5 -2.4 25.3 27.2 27.0 28.4 30.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 25.4 25.7 23.9 -2.3 26.7 28.4 26.3 27.5 29.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 26.9 26.5 23.6 -2.6 21.7 24.7 27.5 28.8 30.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 28.5 27.8 26.1 -1.0 43.7 41.3 27.0 28.2 29.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 27.6 27.4 26.8 -1.9 24.2 28.8 27.8 29.3 31.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 27.6 27.1 24.1 -2.6 21.3 24.5 27.6 29.7 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 28.4 27.6 27.9 -0.6 45.5 45.4 26.5 28.2 29.0 29 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 25.5 26.1 23.3 -1.8 32.6 32.7 26.1 27.9 28.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 28.3 27.9 28.3 -0.5 49.0 46.8 26.4 28.0 28.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 20.4 21.7 20.8 -2.3 26.4 28.5 22.0 23.4 24.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 26.7 27.5 27.1 -1.6 34.9 34.6 27.4 28.5 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 28.5 28.2 28.1 -0.2 48.3 49.0 26.8 28.3 29.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 28.4 28.1 28.0 -0.5 49.6 47.2 26.9 28.1 29.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 26.0 27.4 25.7 -1.4 38.7 36.9 26.4 27.5 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 26.9 27.4 25.9 -1.5 32.9 34.5 27.4 28.5 29.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 75 25 0 100 26.4 26.4 23.2 -2.5 22.6 26.0 27.0 28.5 29.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 28.6 27.6 26.7 -1.1 37.8 38.5 27.2 28.0 29.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 27.3 26.8 25.1 -2.4 21.8 24.8 27.5 29.5 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 21.0 21.1 22.4 -1.8 32.4 32.7 21.2 22.9 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 28.5 28.0 28.3 -0.7 46.7 45.0 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------