***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2015.-26.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 16.3 16.3 19.4 0.6 67.6 65.9 15.1 15.9 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 16.4 16.8 19.9 1.0 80.5 73.6 15.0 15.4 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 44 56 100 18.2 18.3 19.3 0.5 64.8 64.1 16.9 17.5 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 13.2 13.0 16.9 0.1 56.9 54.5 12.1 13.0 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 14.3 14.4 16.7 0.1 57.8 55.2 13.8 14.1 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 13.0 13.0 14.5 0.0 52.9 51.4 12.6 12.9 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 16.5 16.9 19.9 1.0 81.3 73.9 15.3 15.9 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 8.5 8.7 14.7 0.3 64.9 61.1 7.9 8.3 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 15.4 15.7 17.1 0.3 62.4 58.9 14.8 15.2 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 15.3 15.4 15.4 0.3 61.5 59.3 14.4 15.1 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 15.3 15.2 16.2 0.2 60.3 57.1 14.4 15.2 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 13.1 13.6 15.8 0.4 66.1 62.3 12.5 12.9 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 14.6 14.7 15.2 0.2 60.4 56.9 13.7 14.4 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 44 56 100 16.5 16.5 17.3 0.5 66.0 65.5 15.4 16.0 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 16.8 16.9 18.2 0.3 63.2 59.6 15.8 16.6 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 15.7 15.6 15.9 0.1 56.7 54.2 14.8 15.5 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 16.8 16.9 19.2 0.9 77.5 71.4 16.0 16.4 16.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 13.8 14.3 14.9 0.4 64.2 62.7 13.1 13.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 16.1 16.4 19.7 1.0 78.2 72.5 15.3 15.6 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 9.7 9.7 12.8 0.3 60.4 59.3 8.8 9.5 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 15.2 15.5 18.5 0.4 63.2 61.4 14.5 15.0 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 15.9 16.1 19.3 0.9 76.8 72.0 14.9 15.2 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 15.5 15.8 19.3 0.9 74.9 71.4 14.6 14.9 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 16.2 16.2 17.1 0.5 63.9 63.9 14.8 15.8 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 15.3 15.5 17.8 0.4 61.5 60.1 14.8 15.2 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 14.2 14.3 15.1 0.1 60.1 55.8 13.4 14.0 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 44 56 100 15.9 15.9 18.6 0.6 67.8 65.4 14.5 15.5 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 14.5 14.5 17.4 0.1 58.2 55.0 13.5 14.4 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 46 54 100 13.0 13.2 14.3 0.5 67.8 65.9 12.0 12.5 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 16.6 16.9 20.0 0.9 76.1 71.8 15.4 16.1 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------