***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2015.-26.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 17.2 18.2 20.8 1.4 82.3 69.8 15.5 15.7 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 17.1 17.8 21.0 1.4 78.9 69.8 14.8 15.7 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 19.1 19.7 20.6 1.2 78.1 67.4 16.7 17.6 18.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 14.5 14.6 18.4 0.8 67.7 63.2 12.2 13.6 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 15.1 15.0 17.9 0.8 68.2 63.6 13.6 14.2 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 13.5 13.5 16.0 0.6 68.7 62.4 12.4 12.8 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 17.7 18.8 21.1 1.5 81.2 70.4 15.2 16.2 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 9.7 10.2 15.9 1.0 74.8 67.1 8.1 8.5 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 16.4 16.7 18.2 1.0 75.5 66.0 14.6 15.6 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 16.1 16.5 16.5 0.9 74.3 65.2 14.4 15.1 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 15.8 16.0 17.4 0.9 70.8 64.9 14.2 14.7 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 13.8 14.0 17.3 1.2 76.3 69.3 12.3 13.1 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 15.3 15.5 16.6 1.0 75.4 67.8 13.4 14.0 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 16.9 17.2 18.2 1.0 74.1 66.0 15.0 15.8 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 17.8 18.0 19.4 1.0 73.8 66.2 15.8 16.6 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 16.8 16.7 17.2 0.8 71.1 64.9 14.7 15.4 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 18.1 18.6 20.2 1.2 75.3 66.8 15.7 16.6 17.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 14.6 14.8 15.9 0.9 76.2 66.1 12.8 14.0 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 17.2 17.8 20.8 1.4 78.3 69.5 14.8 15.7 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 9.6 10.4 13.9 0.8 70.3 63.5 8.7 9.2 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 16.2 16.7 19.6 1.1 78.1 67.2 14.4 15.1 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 16.7 17.1 20.1 1.1 74.3 66.7 14.7 15.6 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 16.7 17.5 20.4 1.4 80.0 69.8 14.1 14.8 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 16.9 17.5 18.1 1.0 77.0 66.4 14.8 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 16.6 17.4 19.0 1.1 79.0 68.3 14.5 15.1 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 14.9 15.0 16.8 1.1 76.8 68.3 13.5 14.0 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 16.9 18.4 19.9 1.4 82.2 70.4 14.3 15.1 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 14.9 14.6 18.8 0.8 69.3 63.8 13.6 13.9 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 14.0 14.7 15.2 0.9 75.7 65.7 11.9 12.7 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 18.1 18.9 21.2 1.5 79.6 70.1 15.2 16.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------