***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2015.-19.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 16.8 18.4 20.8 2.0 92.8 76.8 14.4 15.7 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 16.4 18.2 21.2 2.3 90.7 79.8 14.3 15.2 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 18.7 20.1 20.6 1.8 88.7 76.1 16.4 17.1 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 14.2 14.7 18.2 1.1 77.4 70.6 11.6 12.8 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 15.4 15.9 17.8 1.2 77.4 70.6 13.1 13.9 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 14.3 14.7 15.7 1.2 78.4 72.2 12.0 13.3 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 17.0 18.5 21.2 2.3 91.1 80.0 14.6 15.6 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 9.3 9.9 15.9 1.4 81.6 73.0 7.9 8.7 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 16.5 17.2 18.2 1.4 83.2 72.7 14.2 15.0 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 16.1 16.7 16.5 1.3 80.3 71.6 14.3 14.9 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 16.0 16.3 17.2 1.2 76.6 70.8 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 14.1 14.6 17.1 1.5 83.1 75.0 12.3 13.1 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 15.1 15.8 16.2 1.2 82.3 73.5 13.5 14.1 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 16.9 18.0 18.3 1.7 85.3 75.9 14.9 15.8 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 17.4 17.9 19.1 1.3 81.4 73.1 15.7 16.6 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 16.6 16.5 16.9 1.1 75.8 70.4 14.4 15.3 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 17.5 17.9 20.4 2.0 84.8 77.1 15.5 16.3 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 14.8 15.5 16.0 1.5 83.7 74.1 12.8 13.3 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 16.6 17.8 21.0 2.2 90.9 79.3 14.7 15.3 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 10.6 11.7 13.9 1.3 83.3 72.2 8.8 9.3 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 16.3 17.9 19.6 1.6 87.8 74.7 14.0 14.6 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 16.0 16.8 20.3 2.0 86.2 77.3 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 16.1 17.4 20.5 2.1 90.8 78.9 14.3 14.9 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 16.7 17.7 18.1 1.6 84.1 74.5 14.4 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 16.4 17.8 18.9 1.6 87.1 75.2 14.0 15.1 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 15.1 15.8 16.3 1.2 80.4 71.4 13.6 14.0 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 16.4 19.2 19.8 1.9 91.9 77.2 13.8 14.9 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 15.3 15.7 18.5 1.1 77.0 70.2 13.2 14.3 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 13.3 14.5 15.3 1.5 83.6 75.2 11.6 12.2 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 16.9 18.7 21.3 2.3 92.6 79.7 14.9 15.6 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------