***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2015.-12.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 16.3 16.3 19.6 1.0 72.0 68.9 14.6 15.1 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 16.3 16.9 20.6 1.9 84.2 78.8 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 18.0 18.4 19.6 1.0 74.0 69.4 15.8 17.0 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 13.3 13.3 17.2 0.5 68.3 61.1 11.0 11.8 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 14.6 14.8 16.8 0.5 69.6 62.1 12.7 14.0 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.1 13.2 14.5 0.1 59.3 53.2 11.7 12.8 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 16.2 16.7 20.6 1.8 84.2 78.5 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 8.7 8.8 14.9 0.6 68.9 64.4 6.5 7.9 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 15.7 15.9 17.1 0.6 70.9 63.8 14.1 15.1 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 15.7 16.0 15.5 0.6 68.7 63.7 13.8 15.0 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 15.7 15.7 16.3 0.6 69.0 62.8 13.6 15.0 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 13.6 13.6 16.0 0.7 70.8 64.5 11.4 12.9 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 14.4 15.1 15.0 0.2 62.8 56.0 12.8 14.0 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 16.7 17.1 17.5 1.1 77.7 71.9 14.7 15.6 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 16.5 17.0 18.0 0.6 66.5 61.8 15.7 16.2 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 15.5 16.2 15.8 0.3 63.4 56.8 14.5 15.2 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 16.7 17.0 19.9 1.7 82.5 77.4 14.7 15.4 16.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 14.2 14.8 15.1 0.8 74.2 68.2 11.9 13.1 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 15.8 16.3 20.3 1.7 83.5 77.7 14.1 14.8 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 9.9 10.5 13.1 0.7 71.3 64.8 8.0 9.8 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 15.6 15.9 18.5 0.7 70.9 65.5 13.5 14.5 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 12 88 100 15.9 16.1 19.9 1.7 83.8 78.1 14.2 14.9 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 15.5 16.5 19.7 1.5 82.6 76.7 13.7 14.2 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 16.2 16.5 17.2 0.9 73.4 69.5 14.4 15.3 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 15.8 16.1 17.9 0.8 69.6 65.2 14.1 15.0 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 14.1 14.6 15.2 0.2 61.0 55.6 12.5 13.8 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 15.5 15.8 18.8 1.0 72.3 69.0 14.1 14.6 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 14.5 15.0 17.4 0.4 64.7 58.7 13.1 14.2 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 13.1 13.7 14.5 1.0 78.4 71.8 10.9 11.9 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 16.3 16.8 20.5 1.7 81.8 76.7 14.3 15.5 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------