***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2015.-05.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 79 21 0 100 14.8 14.6 16.5 -1.8 21.8 23.2 15.2 16.0 16.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 14.5 13.9 16.7 -1.5 25.9 29.1 14.0 15.8 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 79 21 0 100 15.8 16.0 16.6 -1.8 22.5 23.6 16.4 17.5 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 79 21 0 100 11.0 10.7 14.1 -2.0 16.2 18.2 12.0 12.4 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 81 19 0 100 13.0 12.6 14.3 -2.0 15.2 17.7 13.9 14.6 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 91 9 0 100 11.5 10.7 11.9 -1.9 12.5 15.1 12.8 13.6 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 14.5 14.2 16.8 -1.5 26.4 28.8 14.9 15.9 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 79 21 0 100 6.8 6.7 12.3 -1.7 20.1 21.9 7.7 8.5 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 77 23 0 100 13.8 13.4 14.9 -1.8 16.4 19.7 14.6 15.6 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 77 23 0 100 13.4 13.6 13.3 -1.6 20.5 21.9 14.8 15.1 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 83 17 0 100 13.2 12.8 14.0 -1.8 16.0 18.5 14.7 15.3 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 81 19 0 100 11.2 11.0 13.1 -1.7 17.8 20.6 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 86 14 0 100 13.1 12.6 13.0 -1.7 14.5 18.5 14.2 14.8 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 78 22 0 100 14.3 14.9 15.1 -1.6 26.1 25.6 15.2 15.9 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 83 17 0 100 14.5 14.0 16.2 -1.7 16.0 18.8 16.1 16.9 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 88 12 0 100 13.6 12.8 13.6 -1.9 14.0 16.7 15.2 15.5 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 15.0 14.8 16.4 -1.4 28.6 30.1 14.9 16.1 17.1 29 Palic 37000G16 78 22 0 100 12.3 12.8 12.6 -1.6 23.1 23.0 13.1 13.7 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 14.2 14.3 16.7 -1.5 27.1 29.1 14.6 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 83 17 0 100 8.2 8.9 10.3 -1.7 20.6 21.8 9.3 9.8 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 78 22 0 100 13.8 13.6 16.3 -1.8 20.5 22.2 14.5 15.3 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 13.9 14.3 16.8 -1.3 33.4 32.3 14.2 15.1 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 13.8 13.9 16.6 -1.5 28.2 28.9 14.1 15.2 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 76 24 0 100 13.8 14.0 14.9 -1.6 25.5 24.6 14.8 16.0 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 85 15 0 100 13.8 13.7 15.3 -2.1 17.1 19.4 14.7 15.7 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 89 11 0 100 12.5 11.8 12.0 -2.1 12.6 16.0 13.9 14.6 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 80 20 0 100 13.6 13.3 15.8 -1.9 19.1 21.3 14.3 15.2 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 83 17 0 100 12.5 12.0 14.9 -1.9 15.5 17.7 14.1 14.2 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 10.7 11.4 12.0 -1.4 25.8 26.3 11.7 12.3 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 14.4 14.1 16.9 -1.6 24.8 27.9 14.8 16.2 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------