***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.06.2021.-25.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 55.7 70.7 45.3 107.3 63.5 54.6 27.5 43.7 81.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 47.2 44.5 38.3 104.3 59.2 53.4 32.1 38.4 50.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 54.7 50.1 46.2 107.0 62.4 53.8 30.0 47.3 54.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 73.3 83.6 58.2 139.3 77.3 63.8 34.2 52.8 71.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 49.8 60.8 54.2 130.4 73.2 60.8 37.9 44.4 57.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 49.6 57.4 58.9 125.5 70.5 61.5 37.6 46.1 56.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 29.6 52.6 38.6 106.1 60.7 52.6 26.3 41.2 56.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 101.0 110.7 61.4 125.6 74.9 62.7 56.9 77.1 99.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 50.3 68.0 57.3 124.1 72.0 59.2 26.2 42.3 65.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 67.6 98.8 65.6 124.6 74.0 61.2 46.3 57.1 76.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 53.7 61.4 50.5 129.9 74.8 61.7 25.4 38.7 57.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 70.5 77.4 47.6 127.5 74.7 62.9 36.2 48.8 70.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 49.7 48.2 48.6 128.3 73.5 62.6 22.1 36.3 45.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 75.2 68.3 57.4 102.3 61.4 52.1 50.3 64.4 74.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 56.0 63.3 49.0 150.9 79.2 66.1 19.0 35.8 50.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 41.7 44.9 50.3 132.8 76.0 62.2 26.1 35.3 42.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 46.7 56.0 36.8 101.0 59.9 52.6 32.7 38.8 60.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 67.1 83.8 70.2 116.7 69.0 58.3 49.0 59.8 78.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 48.8 46.2 40.6 105.8 61.2 54.1 31.4 38.0 60.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 73.1 76.7 70.5 116.8 69.7 59.5 49.1 59.2 70.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 52.7 60.4 51.6 115.3 67.2 56.5 23.0 43.7 59.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 56.7 57.9 39.9 103.0 61.1 54.1 41.9 50.5 66.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 35.5 57.1 44.1 106.2 64.0 54.3 38.5 50.0 58.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 60.6 86.1 58.9 110.4 64.6 55.2 36.7 46.7 86.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 54.2 66.8 54.8 118.1 69.5 57.8 31.8 43.2 63.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 37.3 53.1 36.7 121.7 69.0 61.5 19.0 30.9 45.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 59.2 63.6 49.6 108.4 63.3 54.0 43.8 50.3 68.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 55.8 62.9 56.5 146.2 78.2 64.8 25.4 40.4 47.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 86.3 104.9 70.3 113.7 68.5 57.4 62.4 79.4 94.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 52.3 57.1 40.8 106.9 60.7 54.0 31.1 43.3 67.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------