***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.07.2021.-25.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 6.3 8.6 9.2 104.1 65.9 49.5 0.9 2.7 8.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 7.5 12.1 8.3 97.9 68.8 49.2 0.6 4.3 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 2.8 12.9 9.9 103.1 69.7 48.7 1.2 5.6 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 9.1 25.6 15.9 175.9 79.1 56.6 2.1 5.0 20.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 7.4 29.1 14.3 162.9 80.0 53.2 0.4 2.9 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 6.9 14.3 15.3 151.2 77.3 57.8 0.6 4.9 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.1 14.1 8.3 99.6 68.2 47.5 1.8 4.7 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 13.4 23.5 15.0 143.4 77.2 53.2 1.6 10.4 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 5.5 14.6 13.3 133.8 75.3 51.1 0.4 2.0 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.0 22.3 15.3 131.9 74.8 50.5 1.2 5.0 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 6.6 23.1 13.3 169.4 80.9 53.0 0.6 3.3 9.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 7.5 19.1 12.2 159.2 80.2 53.9 0.1 4.3 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 4.2 15.9 14.0 173.0 82.2 57.3 0.1 2.0 5.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 6.4 25.2 13.1 94.9 66.6 47.1 1.6 13.3 25.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 7.6 11.3 11.9 173.2 82.0 61.2 0.6 2.3 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 4.6 17.4 14.8 187.0 83.6 55.1 0.5 2.7 5.9 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 1.6 15.5 7.9 92.3 65.0 46.9 2.2 3.4 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 3.9 15.8 17.0 122.4 69.9 51.3 3.4 8.3 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.1 11.2 9.0 99.8 69.3 49.7 1.2 6.3 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 7.6 12.0 18.2 134.5 72.1 53.8 0.5 5.3 11.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 7.5 18.3 11.4 121.5 72.6 49.6 0.2 2.9 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 2.9 16.7 9.6 100.8 65.5 47.4 4.5 6.6 16.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 9.0 13.2 9.7 99.3 69.2 49.4 1.2 6.3 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.3 14.7 13.8 109.9 68.9 49.2 1.6 8.8 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 8.9 19.3 12.6 134.4 74.3 52.5 0.4 3.7 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 11.7 22.6 10.2 171.6 81.9 63.6 0.0 1.2 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.3 10.3 10.5 112.7 68.7 49.5 2.2 5.1 9.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 7.0 24.0 15.4 185.9 81.7 58.8 0.2 3.1 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 12.0 24.3 17.5 123.5 69.3 51.3 4.0 6.9 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 8.3 15.7 8.8 102.0 69.8 49.4 1.0 4.4 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------