***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.07.2021.-18.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 16.7 24.6 10.4 112.8 71.5 58.9 4.0 14.2 19.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 11.3 15.3 10.5 121.0 74.3 59.6 3.0 10.1 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 11.8 17.4 12.0 124.9 72.3 57.8 5.3 9.1 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 14.3 28.7 12.2 127.5 72.2 55.1 4.4 8.6 19.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.4 23.0 11.1 121.6 74.0 56.3 4.6 10.6 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.8 18.6 11.6 110.1 71.4 54.0 2.3 9.7 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 9.1 14.3 10.8 122.0 72.3 57.9 3.5 6.4 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 23.7 40.6 13.8 132.2 73.5 55.0 10.4 18.5 28.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 11.4 20.2 12.7 127.0 74.6 58.1 3.9 7.7 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.1 27.0 15.2 135.2 75.6 56.6 4.9 11.4 20.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.3 18.5 9.0 115.7 73.2 53.4 3.1 8.2 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 8.6 26.2 8.7 106.9 70.2 50.8 5.9 17.5 24.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 2.8 11.9 7.9 95.5 70.0 50.4 0.9 6.2 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.6 23.3 15.5 121.3 72.9 55.9 2.5 14.0 22.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.4 15.5 10.5 148.2 76.7 58.4 1.2 3.5 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 2.4 16.4 8.2 102.7 70.0 52.0 1.7 4.8 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 11.9 17.1 10.5 113.4 71.8 57.7 3.7 9.3 14.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 17.0 26.1 18.3 136.5 74.1 57.5 7.7 13.4 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 14.0 21.3 11.0 127.3 74.9 60.0 4.4 11.3 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 14.7 22.9 18.1 133.3 73.0 56.8 6.2 10.1 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 10.6 13.7 11.4 118.6 73.3 58.3 6.0 9.3 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 12.5 22.4 10.5 104.7 71.4 56.4 4.5 9.1 20.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 16.0 18.3 11.9 134.0 74.1 58.9 5.1 9.4 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 13.3 15.4 15.7 129.0 73.5 57.4 7.7 11.8 14.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.1 18.2 11.7 114.6 71.3 57.9 5.7 8.9 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 7.9 14.9 7.6 118.2 74.8 55.5 1.7 5.5 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 14.9 25.4 11.0 106.9 70.4 57.2 3.1 9.7 24.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 8.4 14.3 11.6 133.9 74.3 56.5 2.3 6.4 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.5 21.4 18.5 129.3 72.0 56.1 14.1 16.0 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 9.7 17.9 11.1 125.8 72.9 59.7 3.9 7.5 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------