***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.07.2021.-11.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 7.6 14.0 12.6 109.8 66.4 54.4 1.1 4.4 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 8.2 11.4 9.0 91.7 62.7 48.3 3.0 5.2 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 9.8 9.5 12.2 104.1 63.8 52.0 3.7 7.8 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.1 18.6 16.0 133.2 74.5 56.9 1.4 8.3 15.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.7 15.5 14.8 128.7 72.8 54.9 2.0 6.2 9.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 14.1 14.0 17.5 128.3 74.1 58.5 4.6 9.2 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.6 9.1 8.6 88.0 60.2 45.7 1.5 8.1 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 22.4 31.0 17.2 136.1 73.0 57.0 10.7 19.3 24.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.5 17.2 15.3 118.2 69.7 53.1 4.3 7.4 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.2 19.3 18.3 133.4 71.6 55.7 6.7 9.2 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 6.6 12.2 15.7 135.7 74.9 56.8 2.5 4.9 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.4 15.0 13.8 132.5 72.8 55.5 2.1 6.6 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 6.7 12.9 14.9 136.3 74.1 58.4 2.1 4.1 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 6.3 17.1 14.6 104.2 61.6 47.7 5.9 11.1 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.1 11.5 14.6 142.2 79.3 58.8 1.2 3.3 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.3 13.7 14.3 129.2 74.3 57.0 2.3 7.9 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 1.4 4.6 8.2 84.5 60.9 47.1 0.9 2.9 5.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 15.0 18.2 17.8 115.6 65.5 53.2 7.7 12.1 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 13.9 11.8 9.7 97.2 63.3 49.3 5.4 9.9 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 13.6 21.6 18.7 121.3 67.7 55.6 6.9 10.4 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.3 13.6 13.0 105.2 66.7 52.5 5.3 7.4 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.4 11.3 8.9 88.3 62.0 48.3 3.6 9.0 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 11.3 9.7 10.8 100.8 62.2 48.4 3.3 8.4 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.0 15.3 15.0 108.1 64.2 50.3 4.0 11.7 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 7.5 9.7 15.1 114.6 69.8 55.3 3.6 4.7 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 6.2 11.8 11.9 125.2 73.0 58.9 1.0 3.9 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 7.5 8.7 14.0 108.8 66.7 54.6 3.1 5.0 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 8.5 18.5 15.5 140.1 76.7 58.2 1.6 4.2 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 12.3 23.8 18.6 113.2 63.9 52.7 9.8 18.3 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.2 9.9 9.8 95.4 62.8 49.7 2.6 5.4 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------