***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.06.2021.-04.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 15.2 20.6 13.0 103.4 64.4 52.9 7.9 11.2 24.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 16.8 24.3 10.5 107.7 66.6 54.9 7.4 13.8 24.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 15.4 17.6 12.1 98.5 64.7 51.8 8.1 13.3 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.0 16.0 14.2 126.6 71.9 58.3 3.8 7.2 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 5.8 15.3 14.1 115.3 71.5 55.1 4.1 10.6 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 7.8 7.4 14.6 115.0 66.2 58.0 3.7 4.9 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 14.5 16.6 10.9 116.0 67.1 56.5 8.3 11.9 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 22.8 28.2 15.4 101.2 65.0 54.6 11.7 17.9 29.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 12.3 20.4 16.0 120.5 72.8 56.8 3.3 9.5 16.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 17.4 19.0 16.8 106.3 67.0 54.7 10.6 14.3 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.1 16.2 12.5 108.0 72.0 55.9 5.2 7.6 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 21.5 20.7 13.0 115.9 71.2 59.4 6.2 13.8 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 7.3 9.4 11.7 111.1 71.7 57.2 3.9 6.4 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 21.5 25.5 14.2 91.7 59.0 50.4 7.9 15.2 30.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 7.1 15.3 11.9 145.5 75.1 58.0 1.1 2.5 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 5.8 9.1 13.0 118.8 72.7 58.7 3.5 4.0 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 16.2 23.8 10.2 114.7 69.5 57.2 4.2 13.0 22.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 19.4 24.9 17.0 98.5 61.1 52.0 12.3 17.0 25.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.7 12.2 10.9 101.9 64.8 53.1 4.6 8.1 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 19.7 20.4 15.5 85.5 57.0 48.2 10.0 16.8 25.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 13.4 17.8 15.8 118.0 69.2 55.3 7.8 11.1 17.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 8.2 17.9 10.8 121.1 70.3 55.1 7.4 13.4 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 17.0 20.8 11.7 96.3 61.8 51.1 7.5 13.0 21.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 21.0 25.7 14.4 97.7 62.2 51.6 6.2 15.5 33.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 9.4 13.4 15.4 112.9 66.8 55.0 5.4 7.0 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.7 8.8 7.1 84.2 65.0 52.2 3.9 6.2 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 18.2 25.6 14.1 106.7 65.3 54.6 8.9 14.3 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.8 15.8 14.0 133.2 72.4 58.5 1.4 4.4 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 23.4 23.4 15.8 93.4 59.5 50.6 10.1 19.0 29.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 18.1 17.9 11.0 106.2 65.8 53.8 8.2 13.3 18.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------