***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.06.2021.-25.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 29.6 30.1 31.5 2.0 85.0 78.2 28.0 28.5 29.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 29.5 30.1 31.2 1.5 77.7 71.9 27.7 28.4 29.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 29.3 29.8 31.5 1.7 79.6 74.0 27.9 28.4 29.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 22.4 23.8 28.9 2.0 86.8 80.5 21.0 21.9 22.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 29.9 30.3 29.3 1.6 81.5 75.5 28.0 29.4 29.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 28.0 28.4 25.6 0.6 69.4 63.1 27.2 27.9 28.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 29.5 30.0 31.1 1.7 80.9 75.6 27.8 28.4 29.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 17.6 17.8 27.2 1.3 78.1 72.6 16.2 17.1 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 29.5 30.0 29.7 1.7 81.9 76.2 27.5 28.7 29.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 28.9 29.7 28.0 1.6 82.0 76.1 27.5 28.6 28.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 45 55 100 29.5 29.7 29.0 1.1 73.8 68.1 27.6 28.9 29.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 28.1 28.5 28.4 0.9 70.7 65.4 27.3 28.0 28.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 29.5 29.6 27.6 0.3 59.2 55.8 28.2 29.3 29.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 28.9 29.4 29.6 2.0 85.8 80.2 27.6 28.0 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 30.2 30.5 30.6 1.5 82.0 73.0 28.9 29.7 30.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 30.1 30.7 28.2 0.7 66.5 61.6 28.7 29.9 30.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 28.9 29.9 31.3 2.0 85.9 78.6 27.0 27.9 28.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 16 84 100 28.3 29.2 27.4 1.9 86.3 79.6 26.8 27.4 27.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 29.0 29.5 31.3 1.5 77.1 71.4 27.5 28.1 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 17 83 100 24.2 24.6 24.8 1.6 82.8 77.4 22.5 23.2 24.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 29.6 30.1 30.9 2.0 85.1 79.0 27.7 28.8 29.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 29.4 30.0 31.3 2.1 85.3 78.4 27.6 28.4 29.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 28.9 29.5 31.4 1.7 76.8 72.3 27.5 27.9 29.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 28.8 29.3 29.6 2.0 86.6 80.1 27.1 27.7 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 29.6 30.3 29.9 2.0 87.3 80.4 28.1 28.7 29.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 28.8 29.1 27.7 0.5 64.0 58.8 28.1 28.7 29.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 29.2 29.9 30.6 2.1 88.3 80.9 27.5 28.2 28.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 30.4 30.8 29.3 1.5 81.8 74.0 29.1 29.8 30.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 23.8 24.8 26.3 1.8 86.2 79.8 21.6 22.7 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 29.0 29.5 31.2 1.5 76.1 71.5 27.9 28.2 29.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------