***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.07.2021.-18.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 28.3 30.1 31.3 1.7 69.8 65.9 26.9 27.7 29.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 28.4 29.3 30.8 1.2 65.7 61.8 27.3 28.0 29.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 28.5 29.3 31.4 1.5 68.3 63.8 27.3 28.0 28.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 23.1 23.4 29.4 2.0 74.7 68.3 20.4 21.3 22.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 29.0 30.0 29.4 1.5 71.3 64.7 27.6 28.5 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 27.7 28.5 26.0 0.8 65.6 57.9 26.6 27.1 28.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 28.7 29.1 30.9 1.5 67.9 64.4 27.1 28.2 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 16.6 17.7 27.6 1.4 68.6 62.0 15.0 16.0 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 29.6 29.1 29.4 1.5 70.3 64.5 27.3 27.9 28.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 28.2 28.9 28.1 1.6 70.4 64.2 27.0 27.8 28.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 28.6 28.9 28.9 1.1 65.8 60.3 27.1 28.0 28.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 28.1 28.3 28.9 1.0 64.3 58.6 26.2 27.7 28.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 29.0 29.0 27.5 0.7 61.2 55.4 27.3 28.5 29.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 28.1 29.6 29.0 1.7 73.3 66.1 27.3 27.8 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 29.6 30.7 30.4 1.6 71.0 65.1 28.8 29.2 30.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 29.8 29.8 28.4 0.9 64.4 58.5 28.3 29.3 30.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 44 56 100 29.2 29.4 30.9 1.6 69.5 65.8 26.7 27.7 28.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 28.5 28.8 27.5 1.8 73.5 66.4 26.0 26.9 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 28.1 28.7 31.1 1.2 65.9 61.5 26.6 27.7 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 24.5 25.0 25.0 1.7 73.5 65.3 21.6 22.7 23.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 44 56 100 30.0 30.4 30.6 1.8 73.4 66.3 27.3 28.1 28.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 28.4 29.5 30.9 1.6 69.1 65.2 27.1 27.9 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 28.1 28.9 31.2 1.3 68.1 62.5 27.0 27.6 28.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 28.1 29.2 29.2 1.8 73.2 66.7 26.6 27.6 28.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 30.0 30.5 29.6 2.0 75.2 68.3 27.9 28.5 29.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 28.7 28.8 28.3 0.6 60.1 54.9 27.2 28.1 29.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 29.5 30.2 30.4 1.9 73.8 68.0 26.6 28.0 29.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 29.9 31.2 29.6 1.6 71.3 64.9 28.5 29.4 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 23.8 24.0 26.4 1.7 73.7 65.9 21.0 22.1 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 28.5 29.3 30.9 1.2 65.3 62.0 26.6 28.1 29.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------