***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.07.2021.-11.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 29.4 29.2 30.5 1.3 69.7 64.5 27.1 28.5 29.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 29.3 29.1 30.5 1.1 67.8 61.9 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 28.2 29.1 30.6 1.1 65.1 61.5 26.5 27.7 29.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 22.0 22.4 27.5 1.1 66.6 61.3 19.5 21.6 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 28.8 29.8 28.2 0.8 62.3 58.3 26.9 28.2 30.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 27.4 26.7 24.6 -0.2 50.1 47.5 25.6 26.7 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 29.3 29.2 30.4 1.2 69.8 64.1 26.3 27.8 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 16.7 16.9 26.0 0.6 60.8 55.9 15.0 16.2 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 28.2 29.3 28.8 0.9 63.8 59.8 26.6 27.7 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 28.0 29.3 27.0 0.9 64.0 59.5 26.3 27.4 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 28.6 28.7 28.0 0.3 55.5 53.3 26.6 28.1 29.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 27.2 27.2 27.1 0.1 53.9 51.2 25.4 26.5 28.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 28.7 27.7 26.6 -0.5 44.1 44.3 27.2 28.1 29.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 28.9 29.0 28.9 1.6 71.2 66.0 26.9 27.6 28.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 29.5 29.9 29.6 0.6 61.8 56.2 27.8 29.0 30.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 29.6 28.9 27.1 -0.2 47.8 47.9 27.3 29.1 30.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 29.1 29.0 30.6 1.6 71.5 66.6 26.4 27.2 28.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 27.8 28.0 26.3 1.2 66.3 61.7 25.6 26.3 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 28.9 28.4 30.6 1.1 67.0 61.7 26.6 27.4 28.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 22.9 23.3 23.8 0.8 64.6 58.6 20.8 22.4 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 28.3 29.3 29.9 1.2 66.6 62.2 26.6 27.8 29.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 29.3 29.4 30.6 1.7 71.3 67.2 27.2 27.9 28.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 28.8 28.8 30.6 1.1 67.4 62.0 26.6 27.5 28.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 28.4 28.3 28.7 1.4 67.3 63.6 26.1 27.1 28.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 28.5 29.7 28.9 1.2 67.9 63.5 26.6 28.0 29.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 28.2 27.6 26.3 -0.4 46.5 46.1 27.1 27.7 29.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 28.9 29.0 29.7 1.4 70.5 65.3 26.2 27.4 28.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 29.5 29.8 28.1 0.6 60.9 56.3 27.9 29.0 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 23.4 22.9 25.3 1.1 66.4 61.5 20.9 21.7 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 29.3 29.0 30.4 1.0 67.8 61.6 26.7 27.7 28.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------