***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.07.2021.-25.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.8 20.2 0.9 70.0 61.9 15.0 15.8 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.7 20.0 0.6 63.8 58.7 14.7 15.9 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 18.0 19.1 20.4 0.7 66.2 59.8 16.5 17.4 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 13.4 14.6 17.8 0.9 70.9 63.8 12.0 13.0 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.9 17.6 0.7 66.3 60.1 13.4 14.1 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.0 13.0 15.3 0.3 57.6 54.9 12.0 12.8 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 16.4 17.0 20.2 0.8 68.0 60.9 15.4 15.9 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 9.0 9.3 15.4 0.6 66.1 60.2 8.2 8.7 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.9 17.5 0.6 64.8 59.9 14.9 15.2 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 15.3 15.9 16.1 0.7 67.4 61.6 14.2 15.0 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 15.1 15.2 17.2 0.5 62.1 58.1 14.1 14.8 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.1 13.2 16.2 0.4 61.2 56.8 12.2 12.8 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 12.9 13.9 15.0 0.1 55.2 51.7 13.4 13.8 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 15.0 16.3 17.6 0.7 64.6 59.8 15.1 15.5 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 16.8 17.1 19.2 0.7 67.2 61.6 15.7 16.6 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.7 16.2 0.3 59.7 55.0 14.8 15.3 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.9 17.8 19.9 0.9 68.6 61.7 15.8 16.4 17.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 14.5 14.9 15.2 0.8 71.2 63.9 12.5 13.6 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 16.0 16.0 20.0 0.6 62.2 57.9 14.9 15.6 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 10.2 10.3 12.8 0.7 70.0 63.2 8.4 9.2 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 15.4 15.9 19.2 0.8 67.9 61.5 14.4 15.2 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.5 16.4 19.8 0.8 68.2 60.9 14.9 15.1 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 15.3 15.4 19.9 0.5 60.8 57.1 14.3 14.7 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.8 16.0 17.4 0.7 67.9 61.9 14.8 15.3 15.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 15.7 16.1 18.7 0.9 69.6 63.8 14.5 15.5 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 14.2 13.9 14.8 0.0 54.5 51.1 13.5 13.8 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 16.0 16.7 19.5 1.0 71.2 63.7 14.7 15.4 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 14.3 14.8 18.0 0.7 66.5 60.4 13.3 14.0 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 14.0 14.3 14.7 0.8 70.5 63.5 11.9 12.7 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.7 17.1 20.2 0.6 65.5 58.8 14.9 16.0 17.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------