***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.07.2021.-18.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 16.4 16.8 20.3 1.7 77.7 72.0 14.3 15.0 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 16.1 16.4 20.0 1.4 74.6 68.8 14.1 14.9 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 18.5 19.1 20.5 1.5 77.5 70.9 16.5 17.2 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 14.4 14.9 17.9 1.7 81.3 74.2 11.8 12.5 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 15.4 15.8 17.8 1.5 78.5 72.4 13.3 14.2 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 14.0 14.1 15.3 1.0 72.3 67.6 11.8 13.1 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 16.4 16.8 20.2 1.6 76.6 70.7 14.9 15.5 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 9.4 9.5 15.6 1.4 76.9 71.9 7.7 8.5 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 16.1 16.7 17.8 1.5 80.0 73.6 14.2 14.7 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 15.8 16.2 16.4 1.5 79.7 74.1 14.2 14.6 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 15.8 16.1 17.2 1.2 73.9 70.1 14.0 14.8 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 13.7 13.8 16.3 1.2 73.1 69.2 12.1 13.1 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 14.8 15.0 15.1 0.9 69.6 65.9 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 16.8 17.2 18.0 1.7 80.1 75.0 15.1 15.7 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 17.4 17.8 19.3 1.5 78.6 72.2 15.8 16.4 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 16.2 16.0 16.3 1.1 72.0 68.1 14.2 15.2 15.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 17.2 17.5 20.0 1.7 77.1 71.9 15.4 16.5 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 14.6 15.2 15.6 1.7 83.5 77.2 12.8 13.5 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 16.2 16.5 20.1 1.4 74.3 68.9 14.6 15.4 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 10.5 11.0 13.1 1.5 80.2 74.7 8.8 9.2 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 16.1 16.7 19.4 1.7 79.3 73.2 13.8 14.7 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 15.8 16.1 20.0 1.7 77.7 71.7 14.3 15.1 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 16.0 16.2 20.2 1.5 74.7 70.5 14.1 15.1 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 16.6 17.5 17.8 1.7 82.6 76.1 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 15.9 16.3 18.8 1.7 78.9 73.6 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 14.7 14.6 15.1 1.0 69.7 66.0 13.3 14.1 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 16.2 16.8 19.5 1.8 79.4 73.6 13.8 14.5 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 15.1 15.3 18.1 1.5 79.3 72.5 13.1 14.4 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 13.4 13.9 15.0 1.6 82.5 76.4 11.5 12.0 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 16.4 16.5 20.2 1.4 75.4 68.7 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------