***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.07.2021.-11.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 16.3 16.7 19.8 1.3 76.6 71.0 14.8 15.6 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 16.0 16.4 19.5 1.1 73.3 68.6 14.2 15.2 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 18.0 18.3 19.9 1.2 74.1 69.1 16.1 17.4 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 13.3 13.6 17.0 1.1 71.8 69.1 11.1 12.3 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 14.7 14.9 17.3 1.0 70.7 67.1 13.2 13.8 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 44 56 100 13.7 13.5 14.5 0.6 67.2 63.5 11.9 12.8 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 16.1 16.2 19.7 1.3 74.6 70.9 14.8 15.3 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 8.1 8.8 14.7 0.8 68.2 64.7 7.4 8.0 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 16.0 16.2 17.6 1.1 74.9 70.1 14.0 15.4 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 45 55 100 15.7 16.2 15.8 1.0 72.1 68.4 14.0 15.0 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 15.1 15.7 16.9 0.8 68.2 64.9 14.2 15.0 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 12.9 13.1 15.6 0.6 64.4 60.7 11.9 12.7 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 14.6 14.9 15.2 0.5 62.8 59.7 13.1 14.4 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 16.7 17.3 17.6 1.4 79.1 74.4 15.1 15.7 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 17.4 17.6 18.8 0.9 72.5 67.4 15.5 16.3 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 15.9 16.0 16.1 0.6 63.8 61.4 14.7 15.7 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 16.4 16.6 19.5 1.4 75.7 71.7 15.0 15.9 16.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 14.4 15.0 15.0 1.1 74.0 70.0 12.3 13.0 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 15.8 16.2 19.6 1.1 72.4 68.2 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 10.2 10.5 12.8 0.9 71.3 66.7 8.4 9.6 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 15.9 16.1 18.9 1.3 74.6 71.0 13.8 15.3 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 15.6 15.7 19.6 1.4 75.2 72.2 14.3 15.0 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 15.2 15.3 19.5 1.1 71.7 68.0 14.0 14.3 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 16.2 16.5 17.5 1.3 77.0 72.8 14.8 15.5 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 15.8 16.0 18.4 1.2 73.0 69.6 14.3 15.0 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 14.3 14.6 14.5 0.5 63.0 59.6 12.9 14.0 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 16.0 16.1 19.1 1.3 76.3 71.7 14.4 15.2 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 15.0 15.4 17.4 0.9 71.1 67.0 13.2 14.0 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 13.1 13.4 14.3 1.1 73.6 70.1 11.3 12.0 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 16.2 16.4 19.7 1.1 73.8 68.6 14.9 15.5 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------