***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.06.2021.-04.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 16.5 17.5 20.9 3.1 95.0 94.1 15.2 16.0 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 1 99 100 17.0 17.9 20.5 2.8 91.5 90.8 14.5 15.7 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 18.9 19.5 21.1 3.0 93.0 91.8 16.6 17.9 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 14.3 16.1 18.3 3.1 97.7 96.0 11.5 12.9 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 1 99 100 15.8 17.1 19.0 2.9 95.4 93.6 13.5 14.4 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 14.5 16.0 15.6 2.5 96.6 93.6 12.3 13.4 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 17.1 17.7 20.5 2.8 92.2 91.8 14.9 15.9 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 2 98 100 9.9 11.1 15.4 2.1 91.0 89.3 7.8 8.3 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 16.8 17.5 18.7 2.4 92.6 91.5 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 1 99 100 16.4 17.3 16.5 2.2 92.4 90.7 14.5 15.1 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 3 97 100 16.1 17.2 18.0 2.1 90.0 87.9 14.2 15.2 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 14.2 15.0 16.7 2.1 88.7 87.8 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 15.4 15.8 16.4 1.6 81.7 79.9 13.7 14.7 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 1 99 100 17.3 18.6 18.7 2.8 96.1 94.6 15.1 15.6 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 1 99 100 17.5 17.9 19.7 2.3 91.7 90.5 15.8 16.6 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 9 91 100 16.7 18.1 17.4 2.0 89.1 86.2 14.8 15.7 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 17.6 18.6 20.5 3.1 94.5 93.6 15.1 16.0 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 15.4 16.7 16.2 2.5 95.6 94.1 13.1 13.8 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 1 99 100 16.8 17.5 20.7 2.9 92.1 91.3 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 10.9 12.5 14.3 2.5 95.1 93.2 9.0 9.8 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 16.6 17.7 20.2 2.9 96.4 94.2 14.2 15.4 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 16.4 17.9 21.0 3.2 96.6 95.0 13.8 14.8 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 1 99 100 15.7 17.5 20.8 2.9 92.9 91.6 14.3 15.3 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 16.9 18.2 18.8 2.8 96.6 95.0 14.5 15.6 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 1 99 100 16.6 17.5 19.6 2.8 94.3 92.6 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 15.5 16.8 16.0 2.5 92.5 91.7 13.8 14.3 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 16.7 17.9 20.2 3.1 95.2 93.8 13.8 15.3 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 1 99 100 15.6 16.8 18.6 2.7 96.5 94.2 13.4 14.4 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 14.3 14.7 15.2 2.3 93.2 91.7 11.6 12.5 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 17.0 17.9 20.7 2.7 90.8 90.1 14.7 16.3 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------