***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.06.2016.-24.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 71.4 89.2 54.6 137.4 77.3 66.3 29.1 43.7 76.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 66.4 81.6 48.6 132.5 76.5 62.1 36.1 43.8 50.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 54.7 72.6 51.9 133.4 73.7 63.1 30.0 46.3 54.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 70.7 76.3 46.0 134.2 73.6 64.0 36.0 52.8 70.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 54.6 59.2 47.5 138.3 75.9 66.2 37.9 47.1 53.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 44.2 56.9 50.8 131.8 71.3 63.7 33.6 39.6 56.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 57.2 58.4 50.7 135.5 75.5 65.4 26.3 42.7 54.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 96.5 100.7 53.2 134.6 76.2 65.2 62.8 76.4 86.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 56.7 66.2 52.5 139.1 77.9 66.7 29.3 40.4 58.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 84.6 95.1 56.4 133.6 76.3 64.7 48.4 59.5 74.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 54.5 60.5 44.8 131.2 76.2 63.3 25.7 38.8 54.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 53.1 72.5 44.0 133.2 73.2 63.3 35.7 47.0 67.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 32.9 43.5 45.8 132.6 67.9 63.3 22.1 30.5 43.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 73.8 92.2 59.3 121.5 71.4 56.1 50.5 65.0 78.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 51.4 62.1 39.2 138.3 75.4 64.6 16.9 34.0 50.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 36.0 45.2 44.0 132.3 71.8 63.0 26.1 33.7 42.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 53.6 58.6 50.2 128.0 74.4 62.6 30.8 38.8 48.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 65.5 87.1 60.5 124.9 72.3 62.8 50.8 59.6 74.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 51.4 80.2 49.5 132.8 75.1 60.6 34.7 42.8 60.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 44 56 100 67.3 69.1 61.7 129.2 75.3 64.1 50.8 60.4 67.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 67.7 80.5 53.0 138.5 78.7 66.6 23.3 48.3 59.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 55.3 70.1 49.9 124.4 75.0 58.3 38.9 49.8 61.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 53.5 60.2 51.4 131.2 72.2 59.0 37.7 49.2 58.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 68.4 88.1 54.9 124.9 71.2 60.1 38.6 59.5 85.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 49.0 88.5 57.2 139.9 78.0 67.0 31.7 41.0 63.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 32.2 45.0 35.9 130.3 71.3 61.5 19.3 26.8 42.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 56.4 77.2 58.7 136.6 75.9 66.2 40.9 49.8 68.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 53.5 60.7 44.1 138.4 74.9 64.8 24.3 37.1 45.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 85.7 107.5 62.4 124.9 74.1 62.8 64.3 80.4 92.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 51.1 72.3 50.1 134.8 74.0 63.3 33.4 44.8 67.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------