***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.07.2016.-24.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 1.3 8.7 5.3 69.9 61.9 44.3 1.1 2.7 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.2 6.1 4.6 66.8 61.0 44.7 0.7 2.9 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 9.8 8.9 5.2 68.9 64.8 43.9 1.4 4.6 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 3.2 19.6 5.0 74.2 71.6 45.5 0.7 6.7 17.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.1 18.4 5.3 81.2 74.8 50.6 0.3 2.9 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 1.7 10.5 6.1 85.3 66.4 42.5 0.7 3.9 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.2 6.7 5.1 75.1 66.3 47.6 1.2 3.8 6.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 12.0 14.0 6.1 78.7 65.4 48.7 3.3 10.8 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 5.7 12.0 5.3 76.8 71.1 47.8 0.0 1.1 5.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.8 15.7 6.2 76.0 66.1 48.5 2.6 5.0 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 6.6 13.6 4.9 77.5 70.5 47.6 0.3 4.1 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.2 9.6 5.3 83.6 69.0 47.9 0.2 4.6 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 2.7 5.3 5.9 92.1 69.5 47.1 0.1 1.6 3.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 3.3 15.6 7.7 93.3 63.8 45.5 1.4 7.1 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 0.8 9.3 3.9 69.6 69.8 43.5 0.1 1.8 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 5.4 8.9 5.3 84.3 70.7 45.0 1.7 3.4 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.9 6.2 5.0 67.6 63.2 45.5 2.0 2.9 7.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.4 11.3 6.9 74.3 64.0 47.6 1.4 5.6 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 2.2 7.5 4.8 68.2 59.8 43.7 1.3 4.6 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 7.6 8.8 7.5 76.9 60.2 48.6 0.9 5.9 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 1.8 11.2 5.0 69.3 68.9 44.7 0.1 4.1 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 2.0 6.3 5.7 74.7 65.5 43.8 1.9 4.6 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 2.7 8.6 5.7 78.9 63.6 44.2 0.7 5.9 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 11.5 12.6 6.5 80.4 64.2 46.1 1.3 7.7 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 7.3 10.8 5.6 74.6 64.6 46.9 0.6 4.2 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 3.3 6.1 3.9 81.9 70.8 46.2 0.0 0.3 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.1 10.6 5.9 75.9 64.1 46.0 1.3 6.6 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 1.6 14.0 4.9 77.1 70.5 44.4 0.1 3.3 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.1 16.9 7.3 74.5 62.4 47.6 3.0 8.6 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 8.6 9.5 4.9 72.2 64.9 45.7 2.0 5.6 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------