***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.07.2016.-17.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 10.9 17.5 16.1 158.6 79.6 59.7 4.0 8.9 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 11.8 17.9 18.2 181.9 83.5 63.0 4.0 10.4 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 13.8 17.4 16.5 158.0 80.0 62.3 2.7 8.6 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 25.2 37.4 12.7 177.2 81.6 65.2 4.0 8.7 17.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 12.5 24.6 11.4 157.0 77.9 63.0 7.7 10.1 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 18.8 30.0 11.9 155.9 80.3 62.6 3.6 7.0 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 8.7 11.6 18.2 174.6 80.7 62.5 2.5 6.0 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 24.1 39.5 11.2 139.4 76.2 62.5 10.7 19.8 28.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 10.2 22.6 12.7 141.4 76.5 62.6 3.3 7.2 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 17.6 27.1 13.2 138.0 75.9 63.2 6.0 14.9 20.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 11.3 19.3 9.5 146.8 75.4 62.9 3.1 9.4 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 18.4 27.3 9.4 150.2 78.4 62.5 6.6 16.4 23.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 16.2 21.4 10.2 160.3 77.2 64.9 3.7 6.9 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 15.3 24.2 18.8 140.7 75.6 59.2 5.4 12.9 23.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 6.3 19.7 11.1 179.5 81.9 60.2 1.0 3.5 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 10.4 19.0 9.8 153.7 76.2 64.0 3.1 8.4 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 18.9 24.8 17.8 157.8 78.8 60.4 3.7 9.0 16.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 15.9 28.5 14.8 129.4 72.7 62.2 6.7 12.9 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 14.2 27.1 17.9 181.4 84.9 62.1 6.8 10.6 18.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 15.0 19.1 14.1 127.8 73.2 58.7 7.2 13.1 15.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.8 18.6 14.7 153.9 79.8 60.7 4.9 9.0 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.8 28.3 18.0 157.8 82.1 58.8 3.9 9.3 20.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.1 22.8 17.2 172.8 84.7 60.9 5.1 8.3 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 13.1 16.3 15.4 134.6 74.6 60.8 6.7 12.1 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 12.1 26.4 16.4 169.3 80.3 60.9 5.3 8.4 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 8.2 14.5 8.0 149.4 75.7 61.9 2.6 6.6 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.9 31.7 17.3 161.0 78.3 60.2 3.5 7.1 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 43 57 100 13.4 21.7 11.4 171.3 79.9 60.6 2.3 6.8 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 21.7 32.4 15.5 127.5 73.3 61.6 14.9 18.9 26.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 17.0 25.3 17.8 176.1 81.9 63.4 3.3 6.4 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------