***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.07.2016.-10.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 8.7 15.6 11.9 111.4 69.6 53.0 1.1 4.2 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.5 17.8 11.7 128.7 71.0 56.5 4.0 6.1 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.9 17.2 13.1 132.9 74.9 57.7 2.8 8.1 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 8.7 19.1 11.1 132.7 74.8 60.1 2.3 5.5 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 11.4 15.2 11.1 127.0 71.3 56.8 2.8 9.9 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.5 12.8 11.5 102.7 67.5 52.5 3.7 9.9 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 4.6 18.3 11.6 122.5 70.0 54.3 7.0 9.0 17.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 20.0 26.7 12.7 135.2 74.7 57.2 11.8 16.8 22.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.4 19.1 12.3 139.9 76.9 57.3 3.2 6.9 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.5 22.5 14.1 137.9 75.3 57.0 6.9 12.8 19.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 8.8 11.6 11.3 116.5 67.0 54.0 4.1 7.3 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.7 14.2 10.8 127.8 72.8 56.4 3.4 6.8 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 6.0 9.8 10.9 110.7 71.3 53.9 2.2 4.4 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 6.1 34.8 15.7 128.7 73.1 54.5 6.1 13.5 27.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 1.3 9.2 9.2 116.7 73.3 52.6 0.5 3.0 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.9 11.1 10.4 110.1 68.9 53.2 4.3 7.5 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 4.8 9.9 12.7 131.0 71.0 54.1 0.8 2.9 5.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 20.2 23.6 16.5 144.2 76.0 60.1 8.2 12.4 16.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 14.4 20.8 12.4 134.8 71.9 57.0 6.4 10.8 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.1 21.0 14.9 126.4 73.1 55.4 8.2 11.4 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.1 14.0 11.9 128.4 73.8 54.1 4.1 7.5 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.4 19.6 13.8 144.5 74.4 54.9 4.3 7.7 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 13.0 23.0 13.4 132.6 71.4 57.4 7.4 9.4 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 20.7 24.7 16.0 151.3 77.9 60.2 7.1 13.0 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.8 18.2 13.1 111.9 72.3 52.7 3.8 4.7 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 12.4 15.7 11.9 140.4 76.1 60.2 1.4 5.7 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.0 12.2 13.4 107.9 68.4 52.7 2.7 5.6 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.7 16.3 9.5 122.4 73.5 55.9 1.0 2.1 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 19.3 28.2 17.4 137.5 75.6 59.2 9.6 15.7 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 4.6 17.2 12.0 128.2 71.6 56.4 4.8 8.0 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------