***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.06.2016.-03.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 22.9 30.4 21.3 187.6 81.6 74.5 5.4 11.2 14.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 15.1 24.2 14.1 131.9 73.0 63.1 7.8 13.0 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 18.2 21.9 17.1 157.9 77.7 66.0 6.8 11.2 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 9.3 18.4 17.1 144.2 76.2 65.5 5.5 7.2 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 13.1 18.5 19.7 167.9 79.7 70.0 3.8 5.7 11.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 11.4 12.8 21.3 170.4 76.7 71.5 3.7 4.9 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 9.5 17.0 15.8 146.8 77.0 67.3 4.5 8.3 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 33.5 42.8 23.3 161.0 79.6 70.0 9.3 17.4 31.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 17.2 22.6 22.2 169.9 78.8 69.4 5.1 8.9 18.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 20.9 27.0 23.0 159.3 78.4 68.5 7.0 12.0 17.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 13.5 18.2 19.2 167.1 77.7 69.3 2.6 6.3 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 20.4 23.4 18.5 155.7 76.6 68.9 4.6 13.6 17.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 9.9 11.5 18.8 157.6 76.2 69.4 1.8 6.2 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 15.4 25.7 17.0 114.5 66.1 56.9 6.3 11.6 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 10.3 16.8 15.0 173.2 82.1 67.5 0.6 2.0 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 8.5 12.1 18.5 166.1 79.2 69.7 1.3 3.9 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 13.4 23.8 14.6 135.1 73.5 62.1 4.0 10.8 19.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 16.8 26.2 22.2 136.7 73.7 64.5 11.5 14.6 19.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 12.4 22.6 14.4 128.5 72.8 60.6 4.8 10.0 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 26.9 31.5 25.2 172.2 81.5 70.5 8.3 17.9 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 18.3 24.4 21.4 175.9 80.5 70.5 7.7 9.6 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 16.2 17.5 12.4 107.5 63.6 52.2 9.0 14.4 18.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 13.8 25.4 15.1 127.5 74.0 59.6 8.2 9.9 21.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 18.7 33.8 17.1 122.7 68.5 61.3 9.3 14.2 32.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 14.2 22.4 22.1 185.5 83.4 75.7 7.0 11.4 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 8.1 15.6 12.1 135.7 72.1 64.3 2.7 6.5 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 23.7 29.6 22.2 183.8 82.1 75.7 6.1 11.9 19.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 11.2 16.1 18.3 165.4 79.2 68.5 2.0 4.5 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 32.4 39.0 22.2 145.1 74.6 67.0 11.4 19.8 31.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 44 56 100 21.0 26.3 15.4 142.2 74.8 65.6 6.2 12.1 24.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------