***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.06.2016.-24.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 27.6 28.2 28.2 -0.7 34.9 38.1 28.2 28.4 29.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 28.8 28.2 28.7 -0.3 46.4 47.1 27.7 28.4 29.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 27.6 28.0 28.6 -0.6 39.5 40.4 27.9 28.3 29.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 20.9 21.7 26.7 -0.3 46.6 44.1 20.9 21.8 22.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 28.2 28.5 27.0 -0.5 41.6 40.6 28.1 29.1 29.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 27.9 27.6 24.9 -0.1 48.5 48.7 27.1 27.7 28.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 28.7 28.0 28.4 -0.5 41.0 41.9 27.8 28.4 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 16.2 16.6 25.1 -0.4 43.2 43.2 16.2 17.1 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 27.7 28.4 27.4 -0.4 42.7 42.0 27.6 28.6 29.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 27.6 28.4 25.8 -0.4 44.5 42.8 27.6 28.4 28.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 29.0 28.6 27.2 -0.3 47.9 45.7 27.6 28.7 29.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 27.9 27.7 26.6 -0.2 48.9 46.8 27.3 27.7 28.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 29.4 29.1 26.4 -0.1 48.8 48.7 28.2 29.2 29.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 28.3 28.5 27.1 0.0 55.2 50.4 27.6 28.1 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 29.9 29.7 28.7 0.0 50.9 49.6 28.9 29.7 30.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 29.8 29.5 26.8 -0.1 50.1 47.8 28.7 29.5 30.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 28.0 28.3 28.8 0.2 56.8 55.0 27.0 27.7 28.7 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 26.6 27.3 25.0 -0.5 44.2 41.8 26.7 27.5 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 28.3 28.0 28.9 -0.1 52.3 50.4 27.4 28.0 28.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 22.2 22.7 22.7 -0.5 38.4 40.8 22.3 23.2 23.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 27.6 28.0 28.1 -0.7 38.2 37.7 27.7 28.7 29.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 28.5 29.3 29.0 0.6 65.6 62.1 27.7 28.2 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 28.4 28.8 29.1 0.2 60.4 55.8 27.5 28.1 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 27.1 27.4 26.9 -0.3 47.0 44.7 27.2 27.8 28.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 27.8 28.5 27.0 -0.6 37.6 39.0 28.0 28.7 29.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 28.8 28.6 26.4 0.1 52.8 52.7 27.9 28.5 29.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 28.5 28.0 27.6 -0.5 39.2 40.9 27.4 28.2 28.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 30.0 29.8 27.5 -0.2 48.9 46.6 29.1 29.8 30.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 21.9 22.6 24.0 -0.5 41.7 40.6 21.6 22.8 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 27.3 27.8 28.5 -0.6 38.7 41.1 27.7 28.2 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------